A TIMBER FAMINE There has been much talk to the effect that a timber famine is impending in the United States. Whether this is true or not depends entirely upon what is meant by the term "famine." If it means that our timber supply will be completely exhausted in 30, 40, 50, or even 100 years, then we can say positively that there will be no timber famine. If, on the other hand, the term means that, compared with present conditions, our supply of standing timber will be reduced, and the price of lumber higher within the lifetime of men now living, then we can say with equal truthfulness that there will be a timber famine. The question is purely a relative one. Up to the present time, timber of almost every species and grade has been cheap and abundant. In the future, some kinds will be scarcer, and some grades higher priced. On the other hand, there will be a comparatively large supply of the common grades of building lumber for many years, and the competition of other materials will be a strong factor in holding prices to a level which will make most forest products available for a multitude of purposes.
Such data as can be secured indicate that the amount of timber now standing in the United States, estimated at 2,800 billion feet, is perhaps one-half the quantity that existed in the country before clearing for settlement and cutting for lumber began. Our annual consumption of sawed timber products now averages approximately 50 billion feet a year. If the stand is 2,800 billion feet, it furnishes cutting for 56 years at the present rate. As a matter of fact, however, mote than 2,800 billion feet of lumber will be sawed from the present stand of timber. In some regions there will also be no inconsiderable increment through natural reproduction or growth. Our annual per capita consumption of lumber, which has been ranging close to 500 board feet, will eventually drop somewhere near to the German level of only 48 board feet. This will greatly reduce the demand upon our remaining supply of timber, and help make it sufficient for all legitimate needs.
These statements do not imply that there should be any lack of effort to protect our forest resources. On the contrary, they require the expenditure of great sums of money and years of patient care to bring them into proper condition. The conservation of our natural resources means making the best possible present use of them, while safeguarding their reproductive power for the future. Fortunately, our forest resources are easily reproduceable. The question of forestry is largely one of the best utilization of land surface. Land which will yield the highest return under agriculture will, through economic development, find its use in agriculture. Land which will yield the best return when forested—and this includes land chiefly incapable of ordinary forms of cultivation—will ultimately be the source of our timber supply.
So far as present knowledge permits the classification, it is believed that our forest area of 550 million acres contains 200 million acres of practically mature timber; 250 million acres partially cut and burned over, on which there is sufficient natural reproduction to insure a fair second growth; and, finally, 100 million acres so severely cut and burned that, unless supplemented by planting, there will be no succeeding forest of commercial value.
Our potential forest area is large enough to supply all the timber of every kind that we need if it is rightly handled. Here is a field which for years to come will afford great opportunity for the activities of both statesmen and foresters. Although four-fifths of the present timber supply is privately owned, it is highly probable that 100 years hence the bulk of the timber then existing will be in public forests. Because of the long-time investment required, the hazard involved, and the relatively low interest rate obtained from forestry, private capital is not likely to engage in timber growing on a large scale. This makes it necessary that eventually the National and State Governments shall become the more important timber owners.