GRAIN PRODUCTION AND TRADE. No one can study the international trade in grain without noticing the great changes that have occurred in modern times and that are still occurring. Since the closing years of the last century there have been developments which may affect the dietary and economic conditions of the various races of mankind ; these later develop ments will be discussed and illustrated in subsequent sections of this article. If we take a longer survey of the position, we find that one of the most striking features is the gradual displacement of rye by wheat in the dietary of the European races. The dis placement is still only partial, but it is progressing steadily, and it would seem as if wheat would become the staple bread-stuff of the Caucasian peoples and perhaps of some at least of the races of the Orient. In a somewhat similar way maize appears to be taking the place of oats and barley as a cattle-food, but here too the displacement is only partial. Development in the growing of grain is certainly not standing still, the world's average yield per acre having increased appreciably in recent years. In most countries of Europe, governments are giving more attention to scientific plant breeding than ever before. In North America, recent research has been focussed on the rust resistant varieties of wheat, "Thatcher," evolved in Minnesota, being probably the best known of these. Plant breeders the world over are aiming to provide growers with better yielding seed and hardier species of grain, but their work is necessarily slow. We may be sure, however, that the last word in the breeding of new plants has not yet been said, and it would be venturesome to say it is outside the bounds of possibility for some new plant to be evolved which may even displace wheat as the chief bread-grain of civilized man. In another direction too there have been developments; synthetic commodities are being manufactured on a large scale. The French chemist Berthelot held the opinion that synthetic wheat and flour are within the bounds of possibility and put his belief on record in the following words :—"The day is perhaps near when the progress of chemistry will make it possible to manufacture food stuffs economically. When that day arrives the cultivation of wheat and the raising of cattle will meet with the fate that we have seen fall upon the cultivation of madder. There will be im mense shifting of interests, but the masses will profit by the change." The World's statistics of wheat production are of deep interest: *6o governments; §7z governments; t73 governments; records of Soviet Russia.
Wheat can truly be described as the most important of all crops, for it provides the staff of life for all the more advanced and progressive people of the world. It has certainly been known to man for 5,000 years and has always accompanied him in his for ward march. The crop responds readily to generous and careful treatment and herein lies the main reason for the great plethora of supplies grown during the present era. Enormous areas which, be fore the war of 1914-18, were growing 8 to 1 2 bushels an acre, are now producing 14 to 15 bushels, and, in some instances, even more. Seemingly, the world has been relieved for many decades of all anxiety concerning its supply of bread. As an instance of what can be produced on good land under favourable conditions, there is on record the sworn statement of a Canadian farmer of the Peace River district, that in 1927 he harvested 85 bushels per acre from twenty acres of summer fallow land. On the other hand, without man's care and cultivation wheat dies out completely.
In addition to the crops given in the table, there are others con cerning which no reliable statistics are available. These include those of Mexico (about i,5oo,000qrs.), Turkey (about 20,000, 000qrs.), Manchoukuo (about 4,00o,000qrs.), China (8o,000, 000qrs. ), Iran (2,00o,000qrs.) . The figures given in brackets are unauthoritative estimates of outturn which have been issued from time to time. There are also crops such as those of Kenya, Brazil and Peru, which may increase, but are at present quite unimpor tant.
The consumption of any importing country can be ascertained approximately by adding the imports to the home crop; in the case of exporting countries, the home consumption is found de ducting the exports from the quantity grown.
This cereal is also grown in a number of countries which do not publish regular information about production, or for which it is not possible to obtain comparable statistics. The most impor tant are : Dutch East Indies about 9,50o,000qrs., Philippine Is lands about I,5oo,000qrs., Mexico 7,00o,000qrs., Manchoukuo about io,000,000qrs. Australia grows a small crop and other small crops are those of Peru, Brazil, New Zealand and Uruguay.
Maize is usually considered a secondary or coarse grain and rated as feeding-stuff, but it is used as human food by many millions of people in tropical climates and in the southeast of Europe; it is also much used for food in Italy and the United States. Dari or Kaffirkorn is used with maize in tropical climates and largely grown in countries which do not compile statistics of production, such as the Sudan, Syria and Iran, but there are crops, such as those of South Africa and the United States, of which the outturns are definitely known. Maize is not a bread grain and therefore cannot rank with wheat as human food but it is a crop of the greatest importance to the human race. Like wheat, it emerged with man from unrecorded history and depends on man's care for its continued existence. There is no known wild maize, although it was reported that a kind of grass with large seeds was discovered in America some time ago, which might have been the parent of maize.
The yield of maize in America is 2 I bushels per acre compared with 14 bushels of wheat and 17 of barley; in Argentina 28 bushels per acre against ' 31- of wheat, while good European crops will give 32 bushels of maize against 20 of wheat from adjoining lands. (All comparisons are made in bushels of 6olb. weight.) It is safe to predict that maize will continue to be grown as long as meat, milk and eggs are popular articles of diet.
The World's Barley.—The available statistics of barley pro duction are as follow: wheat and oats; but in the United States oats make a much better relative showing with 141 units against 12i units of wheat.
Barley is of ancient lineage, probably the equal of wheat in this respect; it is of the greatest importance to agriculture and cattle raising.
Barley is a dual purpose grain; it is used for malting and dis tilling and also for animal food, being especially valuable for fattening pigs. The best qualities are bought for malting pur poses, the lower ones go to the distillers, and the poorest sorts are ground up for meal. The average barley yield in England and Wales expressed in bushels of 6olb. is Sol; in the United States 171; in Germany 14.
The oats crop can be described as the friend of the poor man and the good servant of his richer neighbour. It grows and flour ishes where sunshine is scanty and the land not very fertile, but at the same time it well repays the care of the good farmer and brings forth heavier yields on the better soils. Speaking generally, the best oats grow towards the north, or south of the equator towards the south.
English farmers have been very dissatisfied with the prices they have received for oats in recent years and the government has at length introduced a bonus system, whereby a subsidy is paid to growers on an acreage basis when the price of the article falls below a certain level.
Although oats are still extensively grown both in Great Britain and abroad, their production has long passed its peak. The dis placement of horse traction by the machine has affected the con sumption of feed oats more than any other single commodity.
Expressed in units of 6olb., oats do not always yield so well as wheat, the figures for Great Britain being 291 of oats against 33 of wheat. In France the yields are 21 units of 6olb. for both *6o governments; t7o governments; §73 governments; $Soviet Russia.
Rye is a very valuable bread grain, but its cultivation has in creased very gradually since the war of 1914-18, and even yet has not attained the volume of 1913. Argentina has made a small extension of her rye acreage, but Europe is not growing more rye, or if there is any increase it is not important. The European crop, exclusive of Russia, shows a bigger total than in the former years, but previous to 1914 Poland and the small Baltic States (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia) were all included in Russia. It can not be doubted that rye will continue to be cultivated in northerly regions, but gradually it is giving place to wheat.
Rye is not a heavy yielding grain, the outturn in Germany averaging 26 bushels per acre compared with 33 bushels of wheat; in the United States the yield is 11 bushels compared with 124 bushels of wheat; the comparisons are made in bushels of 6o lb.