Population and Immigration

fifty or a hundred years from now would be no lower as a re sult of continued immigration than they otherwise would be; or to the employer that wages would then be no higher. But to the social philosopher and to the statesman, interested in the abiding general welfare, the ultimate economic effects are of the greatest importance.

The question is: What will be the far-reaching, long-time effects of immigration upon the general economic situation, as that determines the welfare of the mass of the people? We confine ourselves here to the economic effects, leaving aside as far as possible the racial, moral, religious, political, and general social aspects of the subject.

We are met at the outset by two divergent opinions as to the permanent results of immigration upon the growth of population. The one opinion is that all immigrants coming to our shores are net additions, hastening by so much the growth in density of population ; the other is that immi gration has the effect of checking the natural increase of the native stock so much that it does not materially change the total population, or actually causes it to be less than it would have been had no immigration occurred.

§ 10.

The displacement theory; its fundamental assump tion. The latter view, known as the displacement theory, was first advanced by a distinguished economist, Francis A. Walker, but his first statement of it referred only to the period between 1830 and 1860. The main argument in support of this opinion was that in the three decades from 1830 to 1860, during which a large immigration occurred, the decennial rates of increase of the population were almost the same as in the three decades from 1800 to The conclusion drawn from these figures was that the immigrants were the cause (by the economic pressure they created) of the decline of the birth-rate occurring in the native stock. The validity 6 See Vol. I, p. 429, for figures of population and of decennial rates of increase; also f 0, above.

of this conclusion is dependent on the assumption that no other forces were at work to produce this result. Must we be lieve that, but for immigration, the native birth-rate would not have declined at all? This is incredible. The birth-rate of the native stock had already begun to decline before 1820, as is shown by many family records, and by the fall of the decen nial rate of increase from 35 and 36 in the decades ending 1800 and 1810, to 33.1 and 33.5 in the next two decades. This occurred despite the enormous western settlement then under way on the Louisiana Purchase. The decline of the birth rate began at that time to appear as a world-wide phenome non, accompanying improved transportation (roads, steam boats, steam railways), the rapid growth of cities, and the general industrial revolution. The general birth-rate has de clined of recent years in Australia and New Zealand, where there has been little immigration, more rapidly than it has in the United States.?

§ 11. Magnitude of the inflow of immigrants. The displacement theory still has but in view of the facts it seems necessary to modify it greatly. To the extent that the coming of immigrants caused a net addi tion to the population, it doubtless hastened the growth of cities and the development of industrialism, and thus helped to reduce the birth-rate in some classes. But this view admits the effect upon population which the dis placement theory denies. Probably in a good many cases the more rapid business advancement of the natives, because of the coming of the immigrants, led to the decline of birth-rate The effect of the growth of cities is discussed in the "American Journal of Sociology." Vol. 18, p. 342, in an article on "Walker's Theory of Immigrittion," by E. A. Goldenweiser.

8 One of the best recent statements of it is that of H. P. Fairchild, in "Immitration," pp. 215-225, citing various opinions, and accepting the view of Walker. But he says (p. 216) : "It must be admitted that this is not a proposition which can be demonstrated in an abso lutely mathematical way, which will leave no further ground for argument." that is a consequence of economic success° But a large part of this change would have inevitably occurred even if there had been no immigration after 1820. Between 1820 and 1910 the population increased 82,400,000, and the total number of immigrants was 27,400,000, or 33.7 per cent of the total increase. The birth-rate among immigrants in cities always has been very much higher than that of native Americans, in the same cities. This fact alone might well be taken as sufficient to offset whatever depressing effects the coming of the immigrants may have had upon the native birth-rate, leav ing the immigration nearly a net addition to population. It does not seem possible to believe that, if there had been no immigration, our native population, rapidly advancing in average wealth, wages, and general education, would have continued with an unchecked birth-rate, and would have filled all the places taken by immigrants. And no believer in the displacement theory has ever ventured to claim, as the argu ment requires, that if immigration were now stopped the birth-rate would again return to the old standard of 1820, or would cease to decrease somewhat. Especially of late, since the rate of increase of the native population has become much less, is the effect of continuing immigration apparent. In the decade of 1900-1910 the total population increased 16, 000,000, while nearly 9,000,000 immigrants arrived. Of the remaining increase, 3,000,000 consisted of children born of foreign parents. That leaves, at the most, 4,000,000 in crease attributable to the native stock, white and negro com bined.