Trade World Statistics 1

3. The World's Trade 1860-1913.

In the preceding section, the progress of the external trade of the United Kingdom, the United States, France and Germany has been traced throughout the 19th century and up to the outbreak of the World War. The earliest authoritative figures of the value of the trade of the world as a whole go back to 1867-8 and are given (up to 1894) in Dr. Neumann-Spallart's Ubersichten der Weltwirtschaft and, for the later years up to 1908, in Otto Hiibner's Geograpnisch-Statistische Tabellen. The following figures (converted into sterling at zo marks to the .1) are taken from these publications. Imports and exports have been added together so that the value of the goods actually passing in the trade is about half the figures shown. The figures for 186o and 1865 are rough estimates.

These figures cover the trade of some 75 to 1 oo countries; the additions to the number of countries in later years do not seriously affect the table, because the trade of the new countries, when first included, was relatively small in value.

The gold value of the world's trade appears to have about doubled between 186o and 1872-3, but part of this increase was due to rising prices. From 1872-3 till about 1895, when prices fell heavily, the gold value of the world's trade increased but slowly. Prices then rose again slowly till 1913, and the value of the world's trade rapidly increased.

It is of interest to compare the value of the trade of the four principal countries considered above with that of the value of the world's trade. For the year 188o, Dr. Neumann-Spallart's tables show the value of the trade (imports and exports together) of these four countries to be just over so per cent. of the world's total. Now, in considering alone the trade of these four countries, only those goods which pass inter se are duplicated in the total, while in the world total all goods are duplicated. Making the necessary adjustments for this duplication, it may be estimated that in 188o about 75 per cent., by value, of the goods passing in the trade of the world was imported into or exported from those four countries.

The following table shows the values of the imports into and exports from the principal countries of the world and each conti nent at ten-yearly intervals between 1874-5 and 1905 according to the above authorities. Figures for 1913, taken from the League of Nations publications and not comparable in all respects with the earlier figures, have been added.

Between 1874-5 and 1905, the gold value of the world's trade rather more than doubled and, allowing for the fall in prices, its volume probably about trebled. The trade of the United King

dom and of France increased more slowly than the world's total trade, while that of Germany and the United States increased more rapidly. Among other European countries, the trade of the Western countries shown increased far more rapidly than that of the Eastern countries. In other parts of the world, remarkable rates of increase are shown by Japan and Argentina. Considering the proportions of the total attributable to each continent, Europe's share fell from 72 per cent. of the total in 1874-5 to 64 per cent. in 1905 and (according to the League of Nations figures) to 61 per cent. in 1913. On the other hand, the share of America increased from 15 per cent. of the total in 1874-5 to *The United Kingdom figures for 5874-5 relate to total imports and total exports; those for 1885-1905, to total imports and domestic ex ports, and those for 1913 to retained imports and domestic exports.

tBritish N. America prior to 1905.

**British E. Indies prior to 1895.

19 per cent. in 1905 and to 21 per cent. in 1913; the share of Asia also increased from 8 per cent. of the total in 1874-5 to per cent. in 1905 and 1913.

4. The Progress of Trade Since the World War.

The war completely upset the normal commercial interchange of com modities between the nations and the unsettled conditions pre vailing immediately after the war—sharp variations in the value of money, depreciated exchanges, changes of frontiers, etc.— render aggregate figures up to the end of 1923 of little value. The following paragraphs are therefore devoted to a study of the world's trade in the years 1913 and 1924-7.

In making comparisons based on 1913, there are several factors of which account must be taken. Firstly, 1913 was a year of excellent trade—the crest of the wave following the trough of 1908. Secondly, prices have increased substantially since 1913; according to estimates made by the League of Nations, average gold values of world imports and exports were in 1924 about so per cent. above the 1913 level, in 1925 about 55 per cent. and in 1926 about 45 per cent. Thirdly, the multiplication of frontiers resulting from the war, particularly in Europe, has the effect of swelling the recorded value of a given volume of trade, because much trade that was formerly internal became external ; probably the recorded value of the world's trade has been increased by about 5 per cent. owing to this cause.