Unemployment Statistics

The available statistics of unemployment in the United States are scanty and frequently unreliable. Scattered data exist for or ganized trades and surveys have been made of individual cities. On the whole, however, most of the information bearing upon un employment is in the nature of speculation.

The data used in public discussion are for the most part the results of guesses. This was particularly evident during the con ference on unemployment called in 1921 by the late President Harding, when, despite the resources available to that body, no reliable estimate of the number of unemployed people in the United States could be secured. Estimates ranged from two mil lion to six million. During 1927 and 1928, when the problem of unemployment assumed considerable importance, estimates of the number of jobless workers, all emanating from responsible sources, ran from 1,700,00o to over seven millions. The Secretary of La bor placed the number of unemployed at 1,874,050, but careful analysis revealed that this figure was a measure not of unemploy ment but rather of the shrinkage of employment which was as sumed to have taken place in American industry between the average employment for the year 1925 and that for the month of January, 1928.

Trade Union Data.

Prior to 1922 current data were avail able which showed the extent of unemployment among trade union members in two important industrial States, namely, New York and Massachusetts. The New York figures, publication of which was begun in 1897, were discontinued in 1916. In the following table are presented the percentages of unemployment in the trade unions of the State of New York at the end of March and Sep tember for each year from 1897 to 1914: States have emanated for the most part from private sources. The first elaborate estimate, made in 1918, placed the average number of unemployed in occupations other than agriculture between 1902-1917 at 2,500,000. The maximum estimated number of jobless workers at any one time was 6,500,000 in January, 1915. During 1914 the number of unemployed in any one month was estimated never to have been below a minimum of four millions. The most acceptable figures showing the average number of un employed in non-agricultural pursuits from 1902 to 1917 and the percentages which they bore to the total normally employed popu lation is given below: Other private estimates were given wide currency in 1928 when the problem of unemployment was in the public eye. One, made

by a private labour research bureau, placed the average amount of unemployment in 1927 at approximately four millions.

Another estimate, made in 1928, attempted to measure the ex tent of unemployment in the country from 1910 to 1928. The figures arrived at represent the difference between the probable maximum employment and the actual employment for each year. As will be seen from the table which follows, the results are quite different from those arrived at in other estimates.

The distribution of unemployment during the period from 1902 to 1916 as between the different industries in the State of New York is shown in the table at the bottom of this page.

Non-Governmental Statistics.

Since no official data on un employment for the entire country is collected by any Govern mental agency such estimates as have been made in the United The latest and most reliable statistics of unemployment were compiled in conjunction with a survey of economic conditions in the United States made in the winter of 1928-29. In this sur vey the volume of unemployment was defined as the difference between the number of persons actually employed and the num ber desiring and habitually dependent upon employment. The number of persons gainfully employed in or attached to the differ ent occupational and industrial groups was estimated for each year and from these estimates were subtracted the average annual numbers actually employed in each group. The difference was assumed to represent the average annual unemployment. The results of this survey are presented above.

The figures presented in the above table, it should be borne in mind, are estimates of the average minimum of unemployment for each year. The maximum figure for any given year cannot be esti mated from the data presented. It is highly probable, however, that the maximum exceeded the figures given above by a consider able amount. The real significance of the preceding table lies in the fact that it indicates the trend of unemployment during the period covered.