Agricultural production and income followed a slightly differ ent pattern from that of industrial production. The index of vol ume of agricultural production was 87 in 1919, and dropped to 83 in 1921. Following rather consistent advances the index reached 104 in 1928, dropped to 101 for both 1929 and 1930, and again advanced to 107 in 1931. The low point in the volume of agricul tural production was recorded in 1935 when the index was 92. The 1937 index was 109, and in 1938 the production decline low ered the index to 104. Between 1925 and 1929 the gross farm income fluctuated between $12,000,000,000 and $13,000,000,000. The low point of the depression was reached in 1932, when gross income was about $5,500,000,000. Gross farm income (including Government payments) advanced consistently from 1932 to about $10,333,000,000 in 1937. The 1938 income, however, de clined to slightly more than $9,000,000,000.
The values of manufactured products have shown a double peak in the last 25 years. Beginning with the value in 1914 of about $23,837,000,000, the value of manufactures increased about two and one-half times to $61,737,000,oco in 1919, reached an all time high of $69,961,000,000 in 1929 and slumped to a disastrous low of $31,359,000,000 in 1933, but recovered to almost $61,000, 000,000 in 1937.
Many of the changes in values of both agricultural and manu factured products from 1914 through 1933 were due to changes in prices, although there were also great quantity changes for many products, especially the products of manufacture where the supply can be somewhat controlled by the producers in re sponse to price movements. From the point of view of economic and social consequences, the changes in values during these years are probably more significant than changes in quantities. Above a certain minimum of subsistence, changing values rather than changing quantities cause the greater stresses and strains in the industrial structure. Therefore, no attempt is made to adjust the value figures by the use of index numbers or otherwise to reflect the approximate quantity changes in agriculture and manufacture during the period.
In tracing in more detail the trade and commerce of the United States during the past 1 oo years, it is necessary to divide the sub ject-matter into national income, retailing, wholesaling, manufac turing, mining, occupations, wages and foreign commerce of the United States. A few of the special problems growing out of the industrial and commercial development during the past century will be mentioned.
The national income of the United States was $65,993,000,000 in 1938, including $3,263,000,000 of work relief and social se curity payments. The peak income was in 1929, and amounted to
almost $83,000,000,000. From that point, total national income declined to $40,000,000,000 in 1932, and gradually increased to almost $72,000,000,000 (including work relief and social security payments) in 1937.
The official estimates of national income, prepared by the De partment of Commerce, are available from 1929 to 1939. From 1919 through 1928 the Department of Commerce has estimated income, using the original estimates of the National Bureau of Economic Research, converting such estimates to the level of the Department of Commerce figures for 1929 and then appending them to the official estimates. These estimates disclose that the trough of the post-war depression, as measured by income, oc curred in 1921, when the national income was about $51,500,000, 000. While there were comparatively minor declines in certain years, the trend of income during the decade was distinctly up ward, reaching $79,000,000,000 in 1928. (See Table I.) The first complete measure of the dollar volume of retail sales was contained in the 1929 Census of Retail Distribution. For that year the total dollar sales of retail stores amounted to $49,115,000,000. The trough of the depression in retail sales was reached in 1933 when sales were slightly more than $25,000, 000,000. During the succeeding years sales showed increases each year up to almost $40,000,000,000 in 1937. In 1938, however, sales declined 1% from 1937 to about $35,500,000,000 and were 28% below the 1929 volume. The 1938 volumes of several of the kinds of business were greater than those for 1929: Filling sta tions, 35% greater; eating and drinking places, assisted by the introduction of alcoholic beverages, 26% greater; and mail-order houses, 4% greater. (See Table II.) The estimated volume of wholesale transactions in 1899 was $15,000,000,000. This figure more than doubled by 1912 to more than $32,000,000,000, and expanded tremendously during the period of the World War to more than $77,500,000,000 in 1918. The all-time peak in the dollar volume of wholesale transactions was reached in 1920 at nearly $98,000,000,000, but dropped drastically in 1921 to less than $54,000,000,000. During the re mainder of the decade, despite minor recessions, the general trend in the volume of wholesale transactions was upward, reaching almost $84,000,000,000 in 1929. The low point in the depression which followed was recorded in 1932, when the volume was $35, 500,000,00o. The recovery which began in 1933 lifted the volume to almost $54,000,000,000 in 1935, and to $72,500,000,000 in 1937.