From 1870 to the Great War the share of Europe in the imports of, the United States, as reckoned in percentages of the total, was declining, a little. The war of course caused a rapid decline, for Europe could not supply as much as usual for export to the United States or any othem country. Now, however, our imports from Europe appear to be rapidly returning, not to their level before the war, but to the approximate level that they would have reached if there had been no war. In fact, one of the most noteworthy features of Figs. 95 and 96 is their indica tion that the war merely interrupted, but did not destroy, certain strong tendencies which already existed.
One of those tendencies was toward a decline in the relative impor tance of Europe in the foreign trade of the United States, even though Europe is still by far the most important factor. Another was toward a marked increase in the importance of the neighboring countries of North America, an increase which has been accentuated by the politi cal change in Cuba after the Spanish War, by the discovery of oil in Mexico, and by the growing prosperity and buying power of Canada.
A third strong tendency is toward a persistent increase in the relative importance of Asia and Oceania contrasted with an equally persistent decrease in the importance of the two tropical continents, South America and Africa. In spite of all the efforts to increase our trade with South America, the percentage of imports from that continent has remained almost stationary for half a century, while the percentages of Asia and Oceania have steadily risen. In 1870 South America was more impor tant to the United States than Asia; today Asia has forged far ahead. South America produces either articles like wheat and meat which the United States also produces in sufficient quantities for export, or else tropical products from the equatorial regions where it is hard to stimu late the people to produce much. Africa suffers under a similar handi cap, whereas Australia is inhabited by extremely alert, active people. The Asiatics, though less alert than the Australians are more capable of large production than are the tropical people and are also enor mously more numerous.
The relative changes in the various continents are in part the result of the increasing manufacturing of the United States. This country needs raw materials which are not available in the manufacturing countries of Europe, but can be obtained from North America and Asia, and to a less degree from South America and Africa. This country wishes to sell manufactured goods, but the market for such goods in Europe is already well supplied and does not expand as in the other parts of the world. The market for manufactured goods is not expand ing rapidly in tropical countries, while in the non-European temperate regions such as China it is capable of great expansion. If present tendencies should continue, it is not impossible that before' many decades the business of the United States with North America and Asia may be as important as with Europe.
The Relative Commercial Importance of Various Countries to the United States in Proportion to Their Population.—In comparing the commerce of various countries the differences in size make it very difficult to determine which countries are really the more active. For example, the total commerce of Norway and Mexico in 1913 was almost the same, about $250,000,000 for exports and imports together. But
since Norway has only a sixth as many people as Mexico, the per capita trade was about $103 for Norway and $16 for Mexico. In other .twords, the relative importance of each individual in Norway, so far as foreign trade was concerned, was over six times as great as in Mexico. So far as trade with the States is concerned, however, the average Mexican was more important than the average Norwegian, the figures being $7.60 per Norwegian and $10.62 per Mexican. These figures represent the average amount of goods imported to the United States plus the average amount exported from the United States for each Norwegian and each Mexican. The table on page 410 shows similar figures for all the main countries.
Reasons Why Some Countries Rank High and Others Low in the Per Capita Amount of Their Trade with the United States.—The position of the various countries in this table depends largely on the principles discussed in Chapter VII on The Geographic Basis of Ex change. For instance, Cuba and Canada stand at the top of the list not only among North American countries, hut among all countries. This is partly because both countries are at our very doors. In the case of Cuba the difference between its climate and ours enables it to raise a large surplus of tobacco and especially sugar, two products which we do not find it profitable to raise in sufficient quantities ourselves. In Canada, aside from furs, there is almost nothing which the Canadian climate favors and which is not favored by our own, but the activity of the Canadian people is equally important as a cause of trade. Their race, their climate, their stage of development, and their standards of living all cause them to engage actively in business. Both Cuba and Canada also owe part of their trade with the United States to govern . mental conditions, Canada because its government is so good, and Cuba because to a certain extent it is under American protection. Finally Canada's intercourse with the United States is greatly stimu lated by the common language and by the close similarity of the habits and customs in the two countries. In Cuba, on the other hand, the difference of language and customs is a handicap, although the number of Americans who know Spanish is rapidly increasing and both that country and our own are learning more of each other's likes and dislikes. The really surprising feature is not that Cuba and the United States have so large a trade, for we want Cuba's sugar and tobacco, and Cuba wants our manufactured goods; but that the trade of the United States and Canada should be so large when the products of the two are so similar, even though the United States is more advanced in manufac turing than Canada. The trade of the two countries illustrates the fact that if people are active and have high standards of living, and are alike in Language and customs, they will carry on a brisk trade. In such cases very slight differences in the qualities of goods are sufficient to stimulate business. The same effect is produced when neighboring parts of two countries have different occupations. For example, the people of Ontario ship farm products to the manufacturing cities like Detroit and Cleveland, and buy machinery in return.