In spite of-these changes there has not been that decrease in west-European imports into the United Kingdom which might have been antici pated. Though staple foods for export are only available on a large scale in the non-industrial eastern districts of Europe, the neighboring countries of the west still supply, for British consumption, large quantities of the minor per ishable food products. Superior organization and better facilities for transport enable the small grower abroad to supply the great con suming centres with much that could readily be produced in agricultural England. Compensa tion has also been provided by the enormous growth in the import of beet-sugar, stimulated by the bounty system — a growth of many hun dred per cent in 20 years. Since the abolition of the bounties by the convention which came into force in 1903 there has been a considerable decrease. in the supply of beet-sugar from Europe, with an increase in that of cane-sugar from tropical regions; but it is impossible to forecast the ultimate position of equilibrium. Further compensation is to be found in the in creasing 'volume of the stream of those conti nental manufactures which find a ready market in the United Kingdom. The net import of for eign manufactured goods, more than half of which are ready for consumption, has doubled in the last generation and was valued at up wards of i193,000,000 sterling in 1913. The greater part of this must be credited to the in dustrial regions of western Europe. Formerly one of the best markets for the British manu facturer, they are now reversing to some ex tent the earlier movement, and invade with suc cess the British market, either supplementing or competing with the native industries.
In raw material the changes are less con spicuous. American cotton and Australian wool still dominate the market; but the tin for British industries is now largely imported from Malaya and Australia, while even for iron ore it is found necessary to utilize more and more the Spanish, Scandinavian and other foreign supplies. The import trade in raw material and food has one characteristic common to all its branches, that is the vastly increased dis tance from which commodities can be gathered and to some extent the multiplication of pos sible alternative sources. In fact, the need of an alternative, particularly when no native sup ply is available, has so impressed itself, not merely on the individual importer but on the great manufacturing interests as a whole and on many responsible officials and politicians, that it bids fair to give rise to a new type of com mercial policy, in defence of the national eco nomic interests.
Foreign Markets.— The question of a for eign market for British manufacturers raises more difficulties than that of the source of imports. As a general rule, the supply of the latter can be safely left to the foreign coun tries interested in their production ; but British exports must seek out their market in the face of the world-wide competition. In this connec tion it is worth noting that the proportion of manufactures in the total exports of British produce to the chief protected foreign coun tries, fell in the last 20 years of the 19th century from 85 to 72 per cent. In the same period the
total export of coal more than trebled, while the number of the population engaged in mining shows a heavy relative and absolute increase. These two facts, taken together, are not without significance; though a proportion of the coal exported is accounted for by the enormous in crease in the tonnage of British steam shipping engaged in the trade of the world.
Apart altogether from the effects of fiscal policy, the development of the industrial activi ties of Western Europe and the United States has necessarily narrowed the market for British manufactured staples. Both regions take a smaller proportionate share of British exports, while in the case of the United States there has been a heavy absolute' fall, for which woolens and tinplate are largely responsible. The Euro pean trade has maintained its value and in some cases has shown a tendency to increase; but the type seems to be changing steadily; coal, yarn and machinery for continental industries tend more and more to take the place of fin ished goods. The census returns provide a valuable comment on the statistics of exports. Among the greater industries, iron and steel and their manufactures alone show an increase in the proportion of the population employed, comparable to that in mining. Woolens and other textiles show a large decrease. Cotton shows a slight increase in the total number but not commensurate with the growth of popula tion. But allowance must be made for more efficient machinery and labor; while the activ ity of Lancashire during the last eight or nine years, as evidenced by the building of new mills and the greatly increased import of raw cotton and export of finished goods, suggests that the next census will tell a very different tale.
The cry for new markets and the "'open door' is not without good foundation. In the West the United States has evident advantages; Germany, owing to her position and her land frontiers, is exceptionally favored for inter course with the purely agricultural regions of Europe; while, in the Far East, Japan has started on an industrial career which compels her to import food and raw material rather than finished products. There remain as open markets China nearer Asia, South America and the British colonial possessions. The fact that staple British exports have found a rapidly ex panding market in the self-governing colonies has masked the decline in other directions. How long the expansion will continue it is im possible to the colonies are not without their own individual aspirations, but it is likely to be long before their manufacturing capacity overtakes the demand of their vast agricultural populations. It is impossible to forecast the inevitable changes in international trade result ing from the European War.