The growth in manufacturing has been the most striking characteristic of the industries and commerce of the United States. This is especially true of the more recent period. Manufactures formed but 45 per cent of the products of the country in 1850, 53 per cent in 1860 and 58 per cent in 1870. By 1880 they had so gained in their growth over the other chief product, that of agriculture, that they formed 65 per cent of the total production of the country and have remained at about that ratio in the census records since that time with the exception of 1890 when farm products were below normal, thus making the share which manufactures formed of the total production slightly more than 70 per cent. Meantime with the growing demand•of cur own people upon the agricultural area and the trend of the farming population toward the cities and manufacturing towns, the share which agricultural products formed of the total exports has steadily de creased despite the increased value of the total output, most of which was consumed with the country. Agricultural products, according to an estimate made by the Agricultural Denart ment from year to year, formed approximately 84 per cent of the exports of the country in 1880, 75 per cent in 1890, 62 per cent in 1900, 51 per cent in 1910, 46 per cent in 1913, the year before the war, and 31 per cent in 1917, this sharp fall in the percentage during the war being chiefly due to the great increase in the exportation of manufactures for war purposes. Meantime manufactures which formed but 15 per cent of the exports in 1860 and 18 per cent in 1870 were 20 per cent in 1890, 26 per cent in 1900, 45 per cent in 1910, 48 per cent in 1913, 66 per cent in 1917 and about the same in 1919.
This large increase in manufacturing in the United States has had a perceptible effect on the imports for certain of the manufacturing material must be drawn from abroad even in a country of such varied production as in the United States. All of the raw silk, most of the fibres, one-half of the wool, all of the tin and a small percentage of the cotton used in the factories are necessarily brought from abroad, since we produce no silk, or jute, or sisal, or Manila hemp, or tin and only one-half of the wool which we require. As a conse quence the imports of raw material for manu facture increased from $50,000,000 in 1870 to $132,000,000 in 1880, $2'76,000,000 in 1900, $566. 000,000 in 1910, $635,000,000 in 1913, $1,230,000, 000 in 1918, and $1,250,715,000 in 1919.
Our demands upon foreign countries have increased in foodstuffs as well as in manu facturing materials. We bring into the country all of the coffee and tea and cacao which our people consume, also about 50 per cent of the sugar consumed, while another 25 per cent comes from our own islands, Porto Rico and Hawaii, but is not classed as an import since those islands are customs districts of the United States and the merchandise coming from them not classed as imports. Our importation of foodstuffs, exclusive of that from our own islands, has increased from $150,000,000 in 1870 to $327,000,000 in 1910. $475,000,000 in 1914 and $760,000,000 in 1918. Quite naturally the manu factures imported showed a much slower in crease in view of the enormous quantities of manufactures turned out by our own factories, the value of finished manufactures imported having advanced from $173,000,000 in 1870 to $203,000,000 in 1900, $360,000,000 in 1912 and $499,000,000 in 1914, dropping to $403,000,000 in 1918, and $393,000,000 in 1919, this reduction being due chiefly to the fact that the European countries from which we had drawn most of our manufactures were not in position at the close of the war to export any considerable quantity of the products of their factories. The share which finished manufactures formed of the total imports of the country fell from 40 per cent in 1870 to 24 per cent in 1900, 22 per cent in 1912, 14 per cent in 1918 and 13 per cent in 1919, while the share which raw material for manufacturing formed of the imports increased from 13 per cent in 1870 to 32 per cent in 1900, 42 per cent in 1918 and 40 per cent in 1919.
Probably not more than about 5 per cent of our manufactures are exported in normal years, though this can be only a rough approximation, as this question, although extremely important, is at the same time extremely difficult to answer in exact terms. The census, herewith indicated, includes in its classification "manu many articles prepared for food which are not included in the government's classifica tion of exported. Meats, flour,
dairy products and certain other articles which the census classes as "manufactures) are classed by the Department of Commerce in its export figures under the general heading of °Food stuffs.* In order, however, to render com parable the figures of the census with those re lating to imports and exports, the Bureau of Statistics a few years ago readjusted its classi fications, dividing into two groups, one of which included all manufactured food stuffs. It is possible, therefore, by combining the export group "foodstuffs partly or wholly manufactured" with the two groups "manufac tures for further use in manufacturing" and 'manufactures ready for use" to obtain a total which represents all articles classed by the census as Another difficulty which arises in attempting to compare this ag gregation of the three groups with the full census classification of manufactures produced lies in the fact that the census valuation of manufactures produced is the value at the factory at the time of production, while the Department of Commerce figures of valuation of the merchandise when exported is the value at the port from which sent out of the country at the date of exportation. It thus happens that, necessarily, the valuation placed upon the manufactures when exported is in most cases somewhat in excess of that named by the manu facturer in his report to the Census Bureau, since the cost of transportation from the factory to the port of exportation would necessarily be added and in many instances the profits of the persons who may have purchased them from the manufacturer for exportation. Compari sons, therefore, of the Department of Com merce valuation of manufactures exported with the census valuations of manufactures pro duced must be made with the clear understand ing that the valuation of the merchandise ex is probably somewhat in excess of that named for the same articles by the manufac turer who reported to the census its value at the door of the factory. Even with this in creased valuation necessarily included in the export figures, the ratio which the total value of manufactures exported bears to the total valuation of manufactures produced in the country is extremely small, having averaged slightly less than 5 per cent during the entire period from 1860 to 1915, the percentage which the value of manufactures exported bore to the census valuation of manufactures produced hav ing been in 1870 3.1 per cent, in 1890 4.3 per cent, in 1905 4.7 per cent, in 1910 4.9 per cent, advancing to 6.7 per cent in 1915, when the de mands of the war brought the exports of factured foodstuffs to an abnormally high figure.
Manufactures are the future hope of the foreign commerce of the United States. While it is true that the country responded generously to the calls of Eurbpe for foodstuffs during the World War it is also true that our growing population demands a constantly increasing share of our agricultural products, while the very great increase which was made in manu facturing for exportation during the war sug gests almost unlimited possibilities in the power of production of manufactures in the United States and especially so in view of the increas ing use of capital in the form of machinery in the factories of this country, an increase much more rapid than that, of other countries. Esti mates by the best experts put the total value of manufactures in the United States in 1919 as probably about $50,000,000,000, while the ex ports of manufactures in the fiscal years 1918 and 1919 have in each case exceeded $3,000, 000,000 as against about $1,000,000,000 per an num in the period immediately preceding the war. The world had made a much better ac quaintance with United States manufactures during the war period than ever before for we were supplying in the calendar year 1918 nearly or quite one-half of the manufactures entering international trade as against about one-sixth prior to the war and with the plentiful supply of capital available our manufacturers should have no difficulty in so increasing the use of machinery in their factories as to enable them to turn out their products at as low a cost as those of the countries having a cheaper labor supply but less plentiful supply of capital, and thus assure to the United States a steady growth in manufacturing and in exportation of the products of our factories.