As the diagram shows, the margin dropped rapidly back after this brief success from eighteen to thirteen cents, nor did it stay there. With the return of competition, in the fall of 1873, it continued to drop rapidly. By the end of the year it was down to eleven cents; by the end of 1874 to nine. What had done it? A decline in expenses, coming from the multi plication of pipe-lines, reduction in freight charges, and free competition in the markets. Nothing else.
In spite of the obvious economic effects of his scheme in 1872 Mr. Rockefeller did not give up his theory that to make oil dear was for the good of the business. He went steadily ahead, developing quietly his plan of a union of all refiners, pledged to limit their output of oil to an allotment he should assign, to accept the freight rates he should arrange for, to buy and sell at the prices he set. It was a year before the alliance was nearly enough complete to make its power felt. By the summer of 1876 it claimed to have nine-tenths of the refiners in the country in line. At that time a situation rose in the crude oil market well calculated to help it in its intention to raise prices. This was a falling off in the pro duction of crude oil. An advance in its price had come in the summer of 1876. Refined had, of course, responded to the rise. But as the fall came on and the exporters prepared to load their cargoes, the syndicate demanded a price for refined much above that for which the market price of crude called. The embargo which followed has already been described in Chapter VII of this narrative. It was as straight a hold-up as our commercial history offers, rich as it is in that sort of operations. From October to February refined oil was held at a price purely arbitrary. It was the first fruits of the Great Scheme.
The winter's work was a great one for the Standard Com bination. It not only demonstrated that Mr. Rockefeller was correct in his theory that the way to make oil dear was to refuse to sell it cheap, but not since the coup of 1872, with the South Improvement Company, had Mr. Rockefeller reaped such rewards. The profits were staggering. One of the leading gentlemen in this pretty affair told the writer once that he had sold one cargo at thirty-five cents a gallon, oil which cost him on board the ship a trifle under ten cents. To-day one-fourth of a cent profit a gallon is considered large on export oil. The Standard Oil Company of Ohio had always paid a good dividend,*' but the year of this raid, 1877, it surpassed all bounds. On a capitalisation of $3,5oo,
000 it paid $3,248,65o.ol, only a fraction less than too per cent. One of its stockholders, the late Samuel Andrews, when on the witness-stand in 1879, said they might have paid the dividend twice over and had money to spare.
The profits were great, but notice the forces set in motion by this coup. The exporters were angry. The buyers in Europe were angry. If the Americans are going to force up prices in this way, they said, we will not buy their refined oil. We will import their crude and refine it ourselves. We will go back to shale oil. A first result, then, of this attempt to hold prices up to a point conspicuously out of proportion to the raw product was that the exports of illuminating oil fell off—they were less by a million gallons in 1878 than in 1877. In the United States the market was threatened in the same way. There had been much trouble in the years just preceding these events with extortionate prices for gas— particularly in New York and Brooklyn. Illuminating oil was so much cheaper that it had been largely substituted, but this artificial forcing of the oil market in 1876-1877 caused a threat to return the next year to gas.
The effect on the refiners who were operating with Mr. Rockefeller in running arrangements was decidedly bad. Each refiner was under bonds to use only a certain percent age of his capacity, and to shut down entirely if Mr. Rocke feller said so. Scofield, Shurmer and Teagle, independents of Cleveland, who had yielded to the attractiveness of Mr. Rockefeller's scheme, and had gone into a running arrange ment with him to limit their output, made $2.52 a barrel on their oil from July, 1876, to July, 1877! They had been satisfied with thirty-four cents profit a barrel the year before. Since making oil paid so well, why not make more? Why keep their allotment down to exactly 85,000 barrels, as they had agreed, when they were prepared to make 18o,000? They did not. They put out a few extra thousand barrels each year. Others did the same. It was, of course, fatal to the "good of the oil business." Not only did these profits tempt many refiners to overrun their allotment; the few independents left profited by the prices and increased their plants; the great Empire Transportation Company combined refineries with its pipe-lines as Mr. Rockefeller was adding pipe-lines to his refineries. Thus competition was stimulated.