THE WEATHER Until the appearance of the boll weevil the weather figured as the chief factor of the risks of nature likely to make or break the cotton farmer. Most planters would agree, no doubt, with the statement of one that "the cotton plant is the most tender plant that grows. It is susceptible to more disasters and requires more of human manual labor to produce it than anything else." 7 On the other hand, the disasters that occur to cotton may be regarded as due to the unusually severe condi tions which it has to face. An expert of the United States Weather Bureau writes : Cotton, though a sensitive plant, is of all summer-growing crops of the South about the least affected by ordinary changes in the weather. Its long period of growth, fruiting, and maturity affords it ample opportunity to recover from a number of temporary set-backs. During the protracted season from planting in April to the completion of the harvest in November, it is exposed to many varieties of weather and it seems to endure the bad as well as enjoy the good.' Owing either to the delicacy of the plant or the vagaries of the American climate, reductions from full yield per acre due to weather have varied in the period from 1909 to 1925 from 13 to 29 per cent.
The most favorable weather conditions for cotton have been thus summarized by J. R. Marbury, meteorologist: April. Frequent but light showers to keep soil moist for germinating seed. Too much moisture tends to rot the seed and cold rain prevents sprouting.
May requires but a small amount of rain in order to assist the farmer in cleaning out weeds early.
June to the middle of August is the growing period. June calls for plenty of sunshine, very little rain with air dry during the day but dew at night.
July to the middle of August the crop can stand some rain if the season has been good.
August. For the blooming period plenty of warm sunshine with light rains about ten days out of the month. The normal weather conditions of the Cotton Belt are ad mirably suited to the blooming seasons. Too much rain at this time, however, causes overgrowth of the weed and the squares may drop off.
September and October require dry weather for the picking season. Rains cause decay of the bolls and serve to discolor and beat out the Droughts are more frequent and of greater destruc tiveness in the Western Belt, causing the greatest disaster in western Texas, not so much in Oklahoma, and less in Arkansas and west Louisiana.' Lack of moisture causes the growth of the plant to be stunted. One or two small bolls bloom at the top and the growth of the plant is over unless it rains. If rain falls the plants start up again and in six weeks will produce a new growth of bolls. From this possibility, Hubbard says, comes the
saying that "Texas can promise more and make less and promise less and make more than any other cotton state." u Also peculiar to the West are the hot winds which become devastating enough to wilt corn in a day, turning the leaves brown. Cotton offers more resistance but wilts after a time under such onslaughts. In 1909 hot winds are credited with reducing the yield 3 per cent of the average of the whole belt, which means that the localized damage must have been very great.
Important in connection with the late crops induced by drought is the date of the first killing frost. Frost destroys the late maturing bolls and thus may cause a serious loss of part of the crop. The earliest frost re corded in the Cotton Belt was noted at Memphis October 9 and reached to the Gulf.' The frost damage that year is estimated at 6 per cent. As a usual thing it ranks less than 1 per cent. In addition to threatening western crops delayed by drought, frost is apt to be severe in the part of the Piedmont Plateau nearer the mountains.
Measured by their damage to the cotton yield, exces sive rains rank next to droughts as a climatic risk of production. The damage has ranked as high as 15.3 per cent of a normal yield in 1919, but the average reduction is between 5 and 6 per cent of the yield. The Eastern and Alluvial Belts are much more apt to suffer from too much rain than Texas and Oklahoma.
The rains that cause the greatest losses in cotton production come at two periods : the early rain in April, May, and June, and the wet falls. A wet April, it was pointed out, delays planting and causes seed to rot in the ground; a wet May causes the plant to shoot up in weed without sending down an adequate taproot. Conse quently, when the long, hot, dry days of midsummer come the plant cannot extract moisture from the subsoil and sheds its bolls. Since the advent of the boll weevil the wet spring has become even more dangerous to the cotton planter." The heaviest spring rainfall occurs in the Central Belt. The heaviest August rainfall is along the Eastern Gulf Section and the South Atlantic Coast. Wet falls are, as Hubbard points out, the bane of the cotton buyer. Even if the fiber is not discolored or beaten out, cotton may be picked wet, or the damp, half-rotted bolls may have seed sprouting in them. In either case the grade is lowered, and the staple rendered unsatisfactory to the spinner. The farmer gets much less for his product and in many cases finds he would have saved money by foregoing the expense of picking a damp crop. The years 1906, 1913, 1919, and 1925 are examples of wet falls that gave much trouble."