CENSUS METHOD AND PRACTICE Within the essential framework of the census system—house to-house visitation coupled with enquiries—diversities in national practice are for the most part of little moment. But in one case, at any rate, a question of method is also a question of principle. Populations are represented in some countries de jure, in others de facto. A de facto enumeration, following the principle of the instantaneous picture, allocates individuals to the areas in which they are physically found at the census date, regardless of their usual residences. A de jure distribution, on the other hand, is that which assigns the population to the respective areas of usual residence. Where populations are immobile, one set of figures serves both purposes : but in most industrially developed countries there is much, and increasing, population movement. It is usual in de facto enumerations to select a census date which so far as possible avoids population movement and on which de facto thus approximates to de jure: otherwise a de facto distribution is apt to be fortuitous and meaningless. But de jure as a norm is not valid for all purposes. What, after all, is the population of Blackpool? The number of its permanent winter residents, or its doubled or tripled complement of the holiday season upon whom so much of its existence and conditions de pends? The great daily migrations between home and workplace raise a similar question: what, it may again be asked, is the population of the City of London—the 13,000 night residents, or the 400,000 who spend there a third of the most active por tion of their lives? The truth is, of course, that there is no one answer : the purpose to be served determines the choice. But it will be clear, at any rate, that the meaning of the term "popu lation" admits of some refinements.
Typical Systems.—The following outline will afford an indi cation of the scope and salient features of a few typical census systems. The English census has been hitherto decennial, though quinquennial powers are now available. The return is made by the householder, the enumeration being de facto. The schedule (1921) includes name, relationship to householder, age, sex, marital condition, orphanhood, birthplace, nationality, school at tendance, occupation, industry, industrial status (whether em ployer, employee or working on own account), place of work, and number and ages of living children and stepchildren under 16.
France.—In France the census is quinquennial: a skeleton household return is made by the householder, supplemented by a separate return by each member. The former includes absent members and distinguishes temporary residents, thus providing for a de jure distribution. The individual schedule (1921) re quires name, sex, date and place of birth, nationality, marital condition, date of marriage, number of deceased and number and ages of living children of the marriage, usual residence (if temporarily present), literacy, and principal and secondary occu pations, together with particulars of principal industry, industrial status, number of employees, or if employee, whether un employed.
Italy.—In Italy the regular census is decennial: the return, which is made by the householder, includes particulars as in France for a de jure distribution. The schedule (1921) requires name, father's name (and whether alive or dead) relationship to householder, sex, date and place of birth, marital condition, literacy, principal and secondary occupations, whether owning property (distinguishing land and buildings), and nationality.
Germany.—Germany affords an interesting example of a quin quennial census of alternately greater and lesser scope. In 1919 the schedule comprised (apart from special post-war enquiries) name, relationship to householder, sex, date of birth and marital status, with the distinctions requisite to provide a de jure dis tribution. In 1925 these enquiries were supplemented by religion, nationality, mother tongue, last residence before the World War, principal and secondary occupations and industry and industrial status. The return is made by the householder.
Population Registers.—As seen in the foregoing examples, the frequency of the census series is usually decennial or quin quennial: the latter is generally deemed desirable on statistical grounds, but the census is an expensive and laborious undertak ing. The attractive prospect has at times been indulged of the creation of population registers, containing in respect of each individual the particulars usually elucidated by the census, and accurately maintained, as a mirror of the people and of the passing phases of their lives, by reports of all changes in the personnel or in the particulars recorded about them. Given such registers, it has been urged, a census of the written records could be taken at any time, however frequent, to ascertain the current position regarding all or any of the recorded particulars without the labour and expense of the census visitation. The prospect, though attractive, is hardly realizable. Were it the case that all the requisite information is already available through one channel or another, nothing would be needed but their com plete co-ordination for the maintenance of the registers. But in all countries there are great gaps in the essential information which could not be filled without a revolution in national habits or administrative machinery. Maintenance of the occupational and industrial record, for example, would involve a duty to notify change of occupation or employment in the case of every individual. Maintenance of accurate particulars as to local dis tribution would involve an obligation to report every change of address.
Population registers with a limited scope exist in some coun tries, such as The Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden ; and many systems of public supervision require the registration of resi dence, arrival and departure. But such countries do not dispense with a census, and it seems doubtful whether removals are notified with sufficient completeness for statistical purposes. It will be clear that in Great Britain, at any rate, and in other countries similarly situated, the proposition would impose upon every individual a host of new obligations which though trifling in themselves would not be discharged without legal enforcement, and which, for want of sympathy with their purpose, would appear meaningless and oppressive. Such a system even if prac ticable would not be less laborious and costly than the census : it would be rigid, moreover, and lacking the valuable capacity of the census proper to experiment in new methods and new fields of enquiry on each successive occasion.
But while the census remains indispensable, the essential ele ment of value in such proposals is well recognized, viz., the co ordination of all continuously available demographic material, such as that of vital registration, with the periodical census re sults. The census population of a given date may be corrected by allowance for births and deaths over any subsequent period to show the population at a later date as modified by net natural increase or decrease. Allowance for the remaining factor of mi gration is necessary to complete the adjustment ; and, given adequate records of migration, a population figure may thus be constructed which is as correct and authoritative as any census product. The process could be carried into further detail were the migration records fully complementary to the registration data. But if inadequate for the construction of fully authentic intercensal statistics, the supplementary sources are invaluable in the framing of estimates to bridge the intercensal gap. Vital registration is closely related to the census both in subject-matter and through their association for joint or mutual service; and cannot be ignored in any study of the census system.
See the articles POPULATION, BIRTH RATE, DEATH RATE and MARRIAGE RATE ; see also official census publications of the respective national governments (census of Commonwealth of Australia 1911, vol. i.: Statistician's report contains extensive commentary on census history and practice) and League of Nations series of "Statistical Handbooks" dealing with the official vital statistics of various coun tries.
The Federal census, which began in 1790 and has been taken every ten years since under a mandate contained in the U.S. Con stitution, was the outgrowth of a controversy in the convention which prepared the document. Representatives of the smaller States as a rule claimed that the vote, and so the influence, of the States in the proposed Government should be equal. Repre sentatives of the larger States as a rule claimed that their greater population and wealth were entitled to recognition. The con troversy ended in the creation of a bicameral legislature in the lower branch of which the claim of the larger States found rec ognition, while in the upper, the Senate, each State had two votes. In the House of Representatives seats were to be dis tributed in proportion to the population, and the convention, fore seeing rapid changes of population, ordained an enumeration of the inhabitants and a redistribution or reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives every ten years.
The provision of the Constitution on the subject is as follows: Representatives and direct taxes shall be apportioned among the several states which may be included within this Union according to their respective numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole number of free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons. The actual enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten years, in such manner as they shall by law direct.
In 1790 the population was reported classed as slaves and free, the free classed as white and others, the free whites as males and females, and the free white males as under or above sixteen years of age. In 1800 and 1810 the same classification was preserved, except that five age-groups instead of two were given for free white males and the same five were applied also to free white females. In connection with the census of 1810 an attempt was made to gather certain industrial statistics showing "the number, nature, extent, situation and value of the arts and manufactures of the United States." In 182o a sixth age class was introduced for free white males, an age classification of four periods was applied to the free coloured and the slaves of each sex, and the number of aliens and of persons engaged in agriculture, in manu factures and in commerce was called for. The inquiry into in dustrial statistics begun in 1810 was also repeated and extended.
In 183o 13 age classes were employed for free whites of each sex, and six for the free coloured and the slaves of each sex. The numbers of aliens, of the deaf and dumb, and the blind were also gathered.
The law under which the census of 184o was taken contained a novel provision for the preparation in connection with the census of statistical tables giving "such information in relation to mines, agriculture, commerce, manufactures and schools as will exhibit a full view of the pursuits, industry, education and resources of the country." This was almost the first indication of a tendency, which grew in strength for half a century, to load the Federal census with inquiries having no essential or necessary connection with its main purpose, which was to secure an accurate enumera tion of the population as a basis for a reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives. This tendency was largely due to a doubt whether the Federal Government, under the Constitu tion, possessed the power to initiate general statistical inquiries, a doubt well expressed in the 9th edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica by Francis A. Walker, himself a prominent member of the party whose contention he states:— The reservation by the states of all rights not granted to the general government makes it fairly a matter of question whether purely statistical inquiries, other than for the single purpose of appor tioning representation, could be initiated by any other authority than that of the states themselves. That large party which advocates a strict and jealous construction of the constitution would certainly oppose any independent legislation by the national Congress for providing a registration of births, marriages and deaths, or for obtaining social and industrial statistics, whether for the satisfaction of the publicist or for the guidance of the legislature. Even though the supreme court should decide such legislation to be within the grant of powers to the general government, the distrust and opposition, on constitutional grounds, of so large a portion of the people, could not but go far to defeat the object sought.
The difficulty stated in the foregoing quotation, although now mainly of historic importance, exerted great influence upon the development of the American census prior to 1900. The pioneer work of the census of 1840 in the fields of educational statistics, statistics of occupations, of defective classes and of causes of death, suffered from numerous errors and defects. Public dis cussion of them contributed to secure radical modifications of scope and method at the census of 185o. Before the census law was passed, a census board, consisting of three members of the president's cabinet, was appointed to draft plans for the inquiry, and the essential features of its report prepared after consultation with a number of leading statisticians and based largely upon the Boston census of 1845, which had introduced many innovations from the Irish census of 1841, were embodied in the law.
The census of 1850 was taken on six schedules; for free in habitants, slaves, deaths during the preceding year, agriculture, manufactures and for social statistics. The last asked for returns regarding valuation, taxation, educational and religious statistics, pauperism, crime and the prevailing rates of wages in each munici pal division. It was also the first American census to give a line of the schedule to each person, death or establishment enumerated, and thus to make the returns in the individual form indispensable for a detailed classification and compilation. The results of this census were tabulated with care and skill, and a preliminary analysis gave the salient results and in some cases compared them with European figures.
The census of 186o followed the model of its predecessor with slight changes. When the time for the next census approached it was felt that new legislation was needed, and a committee of the House of Representatives, with James A. Garfield, afterwards president of the United States, at its head, made a careful and thorough study of the situation and reported an excellent bill, which passed the House, but was defeated by untoward influences in the Senate. In consequence the census of 187o was taken with the outgrown machinery established 20 years earlier, a law char acterized by Francis A. Walker, the superintendent of the census, who administered it, as "clumsy, antiquated and barbarous." It suffered also from the fact that large parts of the country had not recovered from the ruin wrought by four years of civil war. In consequence this census marks the lowest ebb of American census work. The accuracy of the results is generally denied by com petent experts. The serious errors were of omission, probably confined in the main to the Southern States, and especially fre quent among the negroes.
Since 187o the development of census work in the United States has been steady and rapid. The law, which had been prepared by the House committee for the census of 187o, furnished a basis for greatly improved legislation in 1879, under which the census of 188o was taken. By this law the census office for the first time was allowed to call into existence and to control an adequate local staff of supervisors and enumerators. The scope of the work was so extended as to make the 2 2 quarto volumes of the tenth census almost an encyclopaedia, not only of the population, but also of the products and resources of the United States. Probably no other census in the world has ever covered so wide a range of subjects, and perhaps none except that of India and the succeeding American census has extended through so many volumes. The topics usually contained in a census suffered from the great addition of other and less pertinent matter, and the reputation of the work was unfavourably affected by the length of time re quired to prepare and publish the volumes (the last ones not appearing until near the end of the decade), the original under estimate of the cost of the work, which made frequent supple mentary appropriations necessary, the resignation of the superin tendent, Francis A. Walker, in 1882, and the disability and death of his successor, Charles W. Seaton. The eleventh census was taken under a law almost identical with that of the tenth, and extended through 25 large volumes, presenting a work almost as encyclopaedic, but much more distinctively statistical. Its re sults were received with wide-spread dissatisfaction. In each of the nine decades before 188o except that including the period of the Civil War the increase of population had been more than 3o%. In the decade 188o-90 immigration had been far greater in amount than ever before. And yet the increase of population, if the census was correct, was less than 26%. The popular criticisms aroused by this result were reinforced by the belief that the superintendent of the latest census was less of an impartial executive and more of a party leader than any recent predecessor and the certainty that some of the regions for which the reported population fell most below expectations, notably New York city, were areas likely to send to Congress opponents of the party in power. After protracted discussion of the evidence and especially after subsequent censuses had been taken, it was concluded that apart from certain districts of which New York city was the most important, the census of 1890 was nearly as accurate as others in the series, but perhaps suffered from a slightly larger propor tion of omissions. But these omissions, if they existed, were not intentional. New York city includes probably the most densely inhabited areas in the world and a large floating population. To count that population correctly is perhaps the most difficult field problem before the Census Bureau and in 1890 that particular task was ill done. An important reason, perhaps the main reason, for such defects as were found in the census of 1890 lay in the great number of inquiries conducted simultaneously, resulting in a variety and complexity of schedules which the enumerators were asked to fill.