Geophysical science has corroborated that solar causes are responsible for variations in the water level of the Caspian Sea, the ice layer in the polar basin, the rate of influx of cold-air masses in the Arctic, the shifts of cyclone paths, etc.
Fluctuations of the water level recorded in more than one hundred lakes in Kazakhstan and Siberia in the last two centuries, and known to have taken place throughout many more centuries (according to historical data and excavations) display a periodicity of 20, 30-35, and 50 years, correspond ing to the cycles of solar activity. The 11-year cycles were not as distinctly marked by variations in the lake levels, but they were clearly indicated in the steppes of northern Kazakhstan and West Siberia by mass outbreaks of the Karakurt (poisonous spiders). These could not pass un noticed even by the local nomadic population because in years of mass appearance of these spiders man and beast died in large numbers of their poisonous bites.
The karakurts live in virgin steppes on the slopes of hills so that attempts at explaining their mass breeding by means of modern equipment seem rather naive, the more so as these proliferations were recorded more than a century ago. Two cycles have been established by Marikovskii in the mass outbreaks of the poisonous spiders in the steppes of Kazakhstan and West Siberia: one of 10-12 years, and the other of 20-25 years. These cycles can be traced since the 1830's to the present day /10/.
We have dwelt in some detail upon this geographical region because of the recent, unexpected outbreak of the grain moth over an area of seven million hectares.
In this connection it might be interesting to trace the observations recorded by people, not only in our time but also centuries and even millenia ago, of the aforementioned periodic fluctuations of the insect and spider populations caused by changes in weather conditions.
In ancient times, centuries before our chronology began, a 12-year calendar cycle was already being used by the Chinese, Mongolian, and Turkic peoples in the steppes and semideserts of East Asia /11/.
Why then did this ancient cyclic calendar, "mushel," extend over 12 years, with each year being designated by the name of a certain animal: cow, horse, ram, panther, hare, and even mouse and the mythological dragon? Historians and ethnographers have correctly assumed that this "mushel" must have been realistically related to the economics and way of life of the ancient nomads who had made the transition from hunting to nomadic animal husbandry. Their life was based on their livestock; the
pastures were limitless and inexhaustable, but the weather, the precipita tion in winter and summer, and the temperature were extremely unstable. At times, the herbage was scorched by searing droughts by as early as spring, and at other times the ground was covered with an ice crust during the severe winters. Masses of animals, deprived of any forage, died of starvation. The local word for mass death of starved animals was "dzhut." Centuries ago the nomads noted that "dzhuts" of exceptional severity occurred at intervals of 11 and 12 years. Thus arose the idea of a 12-year cycle animal calendar. The most difficult year was that of the hare, "koyan," with the most destructive "koyans" occurring every 36 years. They were known locally as "ul'kum-dzhut." In such years the nomads lost as many as 60% of their horses, half of their sheep, 97% of their goats, and 50% of their camels. On the whole, in the "dzhut" years millions of domestic animals perished and many nomad camps lost more than half their population. Wild animals and fowls of the steppe likewise perished during the "ul'kum-dzhuts" (wild asses, saigas, gazelles, wild sheep, bustards, partridges, pheasants, foxes, etc.), and the famished population was forced to fish the steppe lakes. This may possibly be the reason why one of the years in the "mushel" calendar is dedicated to fish.
Naturally, such extreme fluctuations in weather conditions, now scien tifically explained by Dr. A. V. Shnitnikov, seriously affected the insect and spider populations, which were drastically reduced. Later, they returned to their former level, and when the precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation combined t3 establish most favorable conditions, their population exploded. This was followed again by a depression of the species, even without the interference of man. Although we do not deny the tremendous effect of human activities, especially the need for drastic measure against proliferation of agricultural pests, we emphasize the value of the objective laws of nature, the knowledge of which is essential to advanced science.