Centuries ago the nomads were able to foresee the severe "koyans" and the destructive "uVkim-dzhuts" which killed millions of domestic and wild animals. Contemporary science, however, is seemingly unable to foresee the mass outbreaks of locusts, grain moth, Eurygaster integriceps, and water voles (although the expedition of the West Siberian branch of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR has established that the proliferation of these pests in the Baraba steppe has a distinct periodicity of 10—I1 years). This inadequacy can no longer be tolerated, especially since heliophysicists provide us with accurate fore casts of solar activity for decades ahead.
All possible steps should be taken to enlighten biologists and agricultural workers with respect to heliophysical data and the influence of solar radia tion and its cyclic fluctuations on weather conditions and upon life on Earth.
To this end the volume of scientific and popular-scientific literature on the subject Sun—troposphere—Earth should be increased. The meteorolo gical bulletins, reviews, and forecasts must provide, in addition to data on temperature, precipitation, and strength and direction of wind, also data on the physical state of the Sun, the presence of sunspots, their number and dimensions, and the expected general increase or decrease in solar activity, as determined by the given section of its activity curve.
A significant improvement in the long-range and extra long-range fore casts of mass outbreaks of agricultural pests might be achieved by taking into account the following three interdependent factors: 1. periodicity of solar activity; 2. regime of atmospheric circulation subordinated not only to the revo lutions of the Earth around its axis, but also to the momentum of wave and corpuscular radiations of the Sun; 3. ecological changes in biocoenoses caused in time and space by the
seasonal changes of the weather under the influence of the two afore mentioned factors, and also by human activities.
Forecasting based on the three factors listed above does not exclude the other usual techniques of quantitative assessments of the objects under investigation and of the biocoenotic relationship between the "hosts," and their natural enemies— the predators, parasites, pathogenic agents, etc. The importance of studying the specific reactions of individual pest species to the effects of environmental factors cannot be overestimated.
In the course of its phylogenetic evolution, each species has developed definite requirements as to environmental conditions, definite physiological optima with respect to temperature, humidity, illumination, etc. It is therefore impossible to speak in a general manner of favorable conditions for mass breeding of insects or other organisms. It is only natural that in the steppe zone the dry period will favor development and multiplication of grasshoppers while suppressing the breeding of more hydrophilous species, and vice versa. Therefore, different insects with a potentially high rate of reproduction will react differently to the rhythmic changes in the intensity of solar radiation according to the periodicity of solar activity. In this direction extensive research still remains to be done by Soviet biologists, ecologists, and plant-protection experts who have already made considerable contributions to Soviet and world science.