MACHINERY AND PRODUCTION. The influence of machinery on production and human welfare is well illustrated by comparing the highly industrialized countries, which to-day repre sent the greatest advance in civilization, with those vast regions of other continents which, although rich in natural resources, are har bouring hundreds of millions of population living close to the starvation line. The substitution of power driven machinery for manual labour began in the early 19th century in England and gradually spread throughout most Occidental countries. It gained momentum in the United States during the closing decades of the 19th century and the first quarter of the loth century, but pro ceeded with particular rapidity during the decade following the World War. Labour scarcity caused by the war and artificially continued since the war through restrictions placed on immigration was a powerful factor in this development in the United States. The mechanization of industry has probably been carried farther in the United States than elsewhere. The comprehensive records of manufacturing activity in the census enumerations since 1849 bear testimony to the contribution that machinery has made to produc tion, and the evidence in the first three decades of the present century is particularly clear cut and conclusive. The record since the crash of 1929 is not so unequivocal.
In the period 1899 to 1929 the more rapid growth of manufac turing output than of the workers engaged in its production, when associated with the more rapid growth of horsepower installed in manufacturing plants indicated the growing role of machinery in manufacturing processes.
If the common measure of manufacturing output, its value, is used to display the manufacturing development, it must be ad justed to price changes. The change from a reported product of $11,407,000,000 in 1899 to one of $69,901,000,000 in 1929 em bodies not only a large increase in the volume of production but also the upward movement of prices in the war period.
The influence of price change is still more apparent when the production of goods valued at $61,737,000,000 in 1919 is con trasted with an output valued at $23,837,000,000 in 1914, only five years before.
In order to eliminate the confusion arising from the changing purchasing value of the dollar, indices have been computed that show the growth in volume of the physical production of manu factures. Together with other indices of change, they are shown
for the successive census enumerations in the period 1899 to 1937, in the table.
Characteristic features of modern manufacturing development appeared in the 15-year period ending in 1914. Price changes dur ing the period advanced the value of the product more than would have been accounted for by the increase in quantity. Wage earners increased somewhat more than did population, but considerably less than the volume of production. In consequence, the output per worker increased. There was some diminution in the work week and total man-hours increased less than did the number of wage earners. The output per man-hour therefore increased more than the output per worker.
In these ratios the influence of machinery is shown indirectly. It is shown directly in the greater increase of the horse-power in stalled in manufacturing establishments than of other factors here recorded.
The World War had an influence on the returns for 1919 that, combined later with the depression of 1921, disturbed the orderly course of development observed in the previous 15-year period. The most conspicuous features of the 1919 record were the great increase in value of product, through inflated prices, and the con spicuous increase in the physical output. The latter was brought about by an abnormal increase in the number of workers, which since the work week was not increased over 1914, but rather fell slightly, resulted in a smaller increase in man-hours.
While between 1914 and 1919 there was a slight decline in the output per worker, there was a slight increase in the output per man-hour. In other words, the great influx of untrained workers that characterized the year 1919 did not entirely counteract the normal tendency for an increase of output for a given application of manual labour which results from the gradual improvement of mechanical processes and their increasingly wide utilization in manufacturing operations. The continued expansion of horse power in the period 1914 to 1919 shows why with a labour force of less skill and experience in 1919 than in 1914, the output per man-hour was maintained.