Rural Depopulation

RURAL DEPOPULATION. In all countries of the world there is a trend from the country-side towards the town ; even in countries where the rural population is increasing, the urban population is increasing at a greater rate, so that practically everywhere the proportion of the rural to the total population is decreasing.

In the old world this tendency is most noticeable in Great Britain, where the rural population has decreased not only rela tively, but absolutely. There are fewer people in rural districts than there were 6o or 7o years ago, and the agricultural personnel is smaller. In 1921, according to the Selborne Report, there were 700,000 fewer cultivators than in 1870. Incidentally, there are fewer cultivators per i,000 acres than in any other European country.

In the new world, Australia shows the most striking drift from rural to urban districts ; statistics prove that one-half of its population live in the five capital cities, and only somewhat over 3o% can be classed as rural. This is an example of a new country, still in the agricultural stage of its development, with approximately the same apportionment of population as a long industrialised county, Britain.

What Is the Ideal Ratio.

The old idea (were such an idea ever really formulated) of a balanced population, was that half the nation should live in the country and the other half in the towns. But the old order changeth, and the question is : how far is the change beneficial or the reverse, not only from the economic but from the social and political points of view and, above all, in its relation to the physical standard of the race? Reverting to Australia, the fact emerges that a rural population of some 30% not only produces sufficient food for the other two thirds, but actually an exportable surplus to the value of 1125,000,00o per annum, being 5o% of the total output from the land. The reason for this is that the output per head of those engaged in agriculture (including stock raising) is very high—per haps the highest in the world. One Australian can plough, sow and harvest 30o acres of wheat. He employs 8 horses and a 5 furrow plough ; later in the season, these 8 horses draw a combined reaping and threshing machine, which cuts the ears of corn, threshes, bags the grain, and leaves the bags standing in the field—all in one operation. Next, the cultivator drives a wagon

with patent appliance that picks up the sacks. However, though the output per man be high, the yield per acre is low—only some II bushels, as compared with the English average of 31 bushels per acre.

This example shows the high output per cultivator under up to-date extensive cultivation, and demonstrates that a ratio of rural to urban population of : i : : I need no longer be maintained, since the Australian ratio of : i : : 3 is evidently effective in that country. But Australia is an extreme example, and there is no doubt that as population increases there, intensive cultivation must replace extensive and the yield per acre go up, and the output per man go down.

In Canada, the population is about evenly divided between town and country. New Zealand, South Africa and the British Colonies are still predominantly rural and agricultural. A few decades ago, 65% of the population of the United States was rural, but this section has been decreasing rapidly, especially since 1918; in 192o it had decreased to 49% of the total population, and the process continues. In France the population is evenly divided between town and country ; and, even in a country like Denmark which lives by its agriculture, half the workers are urban and half rural. But the rural section exports large quantities of produce.

The accompanying diagram taken from the publication "La Republique Tchecoslovaque" throws an interesting light on the conditions in five European sections.

In Great Britain, the rural population is : i : : 5. Its output per man, however, is lower than in Australia, and it not only produces no surplus to export, but it meets only half the home food requirements. These ratios are, of course, only a rough in dication, and accurate calculations would take up too much space, since the problem is complicated by the effect of imports and exports, also by the commodities being produced in some places under an extensive, and in others under a comparatively intensive, system of agriculture.