Britain's Relation to industrial and commercial expa sion of India is generally believed to depend on intelligent direction b Europeans. If left to itself many people think that India would go back to chaos. Great Britain wants to retain India. A large section of the British claim that the loss of India would destroy the British Empire even though the trade with that country amounts to only about 12 per cent of Britain's total. On the other hand the Indian national ists claim that India could govern herself peaceably and make more progress without British help than with it. Those who actively support I this claim are a small group of the brighter minds who have acquired European education, who are able to write cleverly, and who are themselves eager to control the masses. In spite of their small numbers they create great discontent with British rule. Boycotts of British goods have been tried and may be tried again.
Probably the export of cotton manufactures and steel goods to India and the import of tea, oil seeds, jute, and cotton are not so essential to j the British Empire as the English think. Probably India is not nearly so able to rule itself as the Indian leaders would have us believe. Cer tainly the vast irrigation system and the many railways which the British have built, and the famine relief which the government has established have done much to save life and prevent distress in times when the rains are scanty and the crops fail. Left to themselves the people of India would probably never have done these things, and it is doubtful whether they could maintain them long or greatly improve their industrial system without outside aid. Altogether the problem of how Europeans can aid in the development of India with profit both to that country and themselves is one of the most puzzling that now faces the British Empire. The fundamental need is wise cooperation between Europe and Asia, and mutual respect of each for the good qualities of the other. America's part in all this is small compared with Britain's, for less than a sixth of India's business is with this country, while nearly two-fifths is with Britain. Nevertheless, in 1921, we received from India as much as from Argentine, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia combined, and sent thither as much as to the whole west coast of South America.
The Trade and Pos sibilities of China is even more populous than India. Its natural resources are probably greater because of its well watered plains, fine coal, and highly miner alized mountains and deserts in the interior. Its natural transporta tion facilities are better than those of India because of its good harbors and great navigable rivers. Most important of all, its people are generally considered
more industrious, more thrifty, more energetic, and more intelligent than the Hindus. Yet China's foreign trade before the Great War was half that of India. Only in later years while India and Europe were recovering from the effects of the war has China taken the lead.
Silk, bean products, cotton, and tea comprise the great bulk of China's contribution to world trade. A little of the exported silk is manufactured, but the total amount of manufactures is almost negligible. The chief role of China, as of India, is to furnish raw materials. The foreign purchases of the two countries are also alike. Neither buys much food, but both demand a large amount of cheap textiles and clothing, a smaller amount of machinery and metal goods, and a little of other kinds of manufactures.
In spite of the fact that the trade of China as well as India is small per capita, the vast number of people and the possibilities of future • expansion make it one of the most valuable prizes for the active com mercial and industrial nations. In India the development of the coun try for a hundred years by the British has to a considerable degree opened up the possibilities, but in China development has only begun. Suppose China should increase her 6000 miles of railways to equal the 37,000 of India, and should improve the natural waterways, control the floods, provide insurance against famine, harness the waterpower, construct mills, direct the vast supplies of steady, reliable Chinese labor, open up the great coal and iron deposits, and explore and develop the copper and other mineral resources of the great plateaus and deserts of the interior. Suppose also that China were to supply her own greatest need in the way of raw materials by bringing wood from the vast forests which border the Siberian coasts and rivers, or from the richly forested tropical islands of the south. Suppose that China were to remedy the chief lacks in her food supply by bringing dairy products and wheat from southern Siberia, beef and mutton from that same region and Central Asia, and fish from the richly stocked ocean off the Siberian coast. Suppose modern science were to eradicate the hook worm, malaria, malnutrition, and other ailments which hamper the Chinese and help to make them slow. And finally suppose modern education were to become universal and thus increase the naturally keen capacities of the Chinese.