AND THE WAR. The position of the Dual Monarchy in regard to the European War will long re main a controversial topic for historians to debate. Whatever light the future may throw upon the subject, it is at least now possible to point definitely to the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July 1914 as the direct or immediate cause of the great con flagration. It is equally established that the grounds for the ultimatum were furnished by the assassination of the Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his wife at Serajevo, the cap ital of the Austrian province of Bosnia, on 28 June 1914. The Austrian government charged that the crime had been instigated in Serbia and by Serbian officials. A storm of anti Serbian feeling swept over Austria and Hun gary; the members of the Serb party in the Provincial Council of Croatia were assailed by their colleagues with cries of "Serbian as while excited mobs in Vienna threat ened the Serbian legation. The Austrian press demanded the punishment of Serbia. On 23 July the Austro-Hungarian government pre sented the ultimatum to Serbia. Thus it may be said that the war took its rise from the murder of an archduke and the indignation of Austria against Serbia, where the plot was al leged to have been hatched. These antecedent conditions do not, however, explain how a purely local quarrel came to embroil the whole world. So far as the two original belligerents — Austria-Hungary and Serbia — are con cerned, the following review of theirpast re lations will serve to snow that the Serajevo tragedy was but the culminating point — the last straw — that brought a long-standing quarrel to a head.
The Austrian defeat by Prussia at Sadowa in 1866 compelled the house of Hapsburg to seek a new centre of gravity in the southeast. The German victories over France in 1870 and 1871 placed the Austrian dream of revenge beyond hope of fulfilment. But meantime, be tween Sadowa and Sedan, Austria had ad mitted Hungary to full partnership in the Monarchy with a view to a fresh struggle against the German empire. When, after the Franco-German War, the Emperor Francis Joseph realized the necessity of admitting also his Slav subjects to partnership in the Mon archy, he found in the existence of the Dual System an insuperable obstacle to his scheme.
Geographically hemmed in by Slav popula tions, Hungary had always pursued a strongly anti-Slav policy, working on the principle that the Slays, and particularly the Serbo-Croa tians, both in the Monarchy and in the king dom of Serbia, must be kept in a state of sub jection. Under the Hungaro-Croatian settle ment of 1868, which resulted from the Dual System, the inhabitants of Croatia-Slavonia, constitutionally subjects of the Hungarian crown, were oppressed and their development impeded, while continual discord was fomented and encouraged between the Croatian, or Ro man Catholic branch of the Southern Slav race, and the Serbo, or Orthodox branch. The occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (q.y.) in 1878 formed part of the policy of ruling the Southern Slav race and of keeping the various branches divided in order to rule them the more effectively. At the same time Aus tro-Hungarian diplomacy sought to gain con trol over the kingdom of Serbia, which for many years stood practically under Austrian tutelage. After the defeat of Serbia by Bul garia in 1885, Austria intervened as a pro tector to check the Bulgarian advance. Not until after the expulsion of King Milan (q.v.) in 1899 did Serbia begin to emancipate her self from Austrian control. The young King Alexander showed a disposition to turn toward Russia, but his unfortunate marriage made him unpopular and led to his murder on 11 June 1903. The accession of Peter Kara georgevitch promised more friendly relations between Serbia and Austria, but trouble arose in 1905 when Serbia 'concluded a customs union with Bulgaria. This prospect of eco nomic union between two Balkan Slav states was so distasteful to Austria-Hungary that the government immediately declared a tariff war against Serbia and excluded all her cat tle and agricultural produce. Serbia resisted the attack to the best of her ability and suc ceeded in finding new markets in France, Eng land and Egypt. From this tariff war, which lasted several years, dates the growth of the Serbian spirit of economic and political inde pendence and the accentuation of Serbian re sentment against Austria-Hungary.