PROBABILISTS, those philosophers who maintain that certainty is impossible and that we must be satisfied with what is probable. This was the doctrine of the New Academy, particularly of Arcesilaus and Carneades. The last-mentioned philosopher distinguished three principal degrees of probability, according as a representation might be probable when consid ered by itself alone; probable and unimpeached when compared with others; or thirdly, prob able, unimpeached and in all respects confirmed. In morals probabilists are those who teach that in our actions we must follow what seems to us probably right, because in questions of morality demonstrative certainty is not to be attained. There are some Christian teachers (and among them Gury in his Theologim Moralis') who taught that a man may follow what is probably right, or what has been decided to be so by teachers of au thority, although it may not be the most prob ably nght, or may not seem probable to himself. It is this view that Pascal in his famous (Pro vincial Letters' holds up to ridicule. Butler
in his (Analogy' bases his argument on prob ability, to which he applies the term *moral certainty.* There were four schools of proba bilism, known as probabilism simple, aequi-prob abilism, probabiliorism and tutiorism. The first held it to be lawful to act upon any prob able opinion no matter how slight its probabil ity; the second required that the opinion should be *solidly probable,* but held that, provided it be really probable, it would be lawful to act upon it, even tnougn tne connicung opinion should be equally probable; the third, in the conflict of probable opinions, would only permit action on the more probable of the two, but it would permit this even when the less probable adverse opinion was the *more safe*; and the fourth required that in all cases the more safe opinion should be followed, even when the less safe opinion was much the more probable.