I. HISTORICAL INTRODUCTION. Wars are invariably concerned with issues of great magnitude, although they frequently arise from ummportant circumstances. This is es pecially true of the European War which brolce out in 1914. It would be rash, however, to de scribe any— or even all— of the political events of the past as *causes* of the war: they were incidental circumstances contributing to an accumulation which rendered war extremely probable. The direct cause of the war was the German ultimatum to Russia on 1 Aug. 1914; it was that which converted a local quarrel be tween a first-rate and a fifth-rate power into a world-wide conflict The critical situation was created by the murder of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife at Serajevo on 28 June 1914. Turning from direct to oblique causes, it will be found that these had been smoldering beneath the visible surface for many years and only needed a slight breath to produce a gigantic conflagration. History that is still in the malting or ts not yet crystallized gives rise to a confused mass of controversy and contradiction; each participant *hath his quarrel ijust,* and the student of current events is large y cast upon his own resources and in clinations to form a judgment from the con flicting material at his disposal. Certain out standing features of the past may, however, serve as a guide to read the riddle of the times in which we live.
Perhaps the most prominent of these fea tures is the marvelous rise of modem Germany since its unification in 1871. The excellence of the educational system of the German people, their technical training, scientific research and machine-like precision had all contributed. to make them the most formidable competitors to the older and more slowly-moving nations of Europe. Economy in production and slcilfnl labor enabled them to flood the markets of the world with their wares; in the chemical indus try they were almost supreme; in shipbuilding and machine construction they rivaled Great Britain; their financial standing was of the highest; German capital stood behind the great est enterprises, and magnificent German ocean steamships ploughed the Seven Seas. In short, Germany was in a fair way to conquer the world by the peaceful arts of commerce and in dustry. Above all, the German army was re garded as the greatest and most effiaent fight ing machine on earth, while the ever-grownw German navy, created in 15 years, stood second only to the British. German settlers and com mercial branches of German firms —as well as banks —were scattered throughout the five continents, and German blood flowed in the veins of nearly all the European royal families. The ubiquitous penetration and expansion of Germany became a world wonder; her real and most profitable colonies were the countries she had never owned.
Increasing prosperity not unnaturally begets ambitions and aspirations which overflow the narrow confines of artificial frontiers, and this appears to have been the case with Germany. Her leaders of thought had for many years ex pounded the patriotic doctrine of German su periority and greatness. They argued, not with- • out reason, that a nation which had achieved so much in the past was both capable and worthy of greater achievements in the future. Many of Germany's severest foreign critics ascribe a large share of responsibility for the war to the influence of Trietschlce, Monunsen, Nietzsche, Frobenius, vim Bernhardi and Count Reventlow. Each of these was an exponent of the gospel of force, of the survival of the fittest among na tions, and of the natural predominance of the strong over the weak. Treitschke, paraphras ing what Luther said 400 years earlier, de scnbed war as the *drastic medicine of the hu man race; he taught that the hope of banish ing war was not only meaningless but °im moral? and that 'its disappearance would turn the earth into a great temple of selfishness.* He also expressed the utmost contempt for the °tottering British Empire? Nietzsche instilled a new beatitude, °Blessed are the war-makers, for they shall be called, if not the children of Tahve, the children of Odin, who is greater ihan Jahve.* Mommsen preached hatred of
England in his historical lectures and Count Reventlow and other writers issued pamphlets and articles aimed mainly or entirely against Great Britain. German fiction abounded in thrilling narratives of successful wars against England. Professor Delbriick compared the historical development of England with that of Holland, which, °without ever having been over come in war, sank in the course of a single generation from the position of a great power to a state which is scarcely mentioned in his tory? In his sensational book,, 'Germany and the Next War) (1911), General von Bernhardi weighed up the possibilities of a European war with remarkable accuracy and stated that Ger many must acquire more possessions in Africa —if necessary, at the cost of such a war. Years ago General von der Goltz wrote that °the pre diction of a final struggle to assure the exist ence and grandeur of Germany is not a mere fancy born in the minds of ambitious fools,* but that it would °come one day inevitably, vio lent and serious as is every decisive struggle between peoples of whom the one desires to have its superiority over the others, definitely recognized? In 1900 a book appeared in Ber lin entitled (Deutschland beim Beginn des Zwanzigsten Jahrhunderts) ( (Germany at the Beginning of the 20th Century)), in which the writer stated: °We consider a great war with England in the 20th century inevitable.* On 18 Jan. 1900 the Kolosiole Zeitschrift remarked, °The old century saw a German Europe; the new one shall see a German world? Two months later (ZS March) the same journal said, °In the history of the world the 20th century will be called the German century? In 'The Reckcming with England) by C. Eisenhart (Munich 1900), ,we are shown how Germany first destroys the Japanese navy, and afterward, while Great Britain is fighting Russia in Asia, Germany destroys the British fleet; finally, the winsolence* of the United States is punished by their utter defeat. Whatever weight might be attached to such bellicose utterances, their sources and the unsuiimity of sentiment per vading them could not fail to attract respectful attention. Even so high an authority as Prince von Billow, then impenal chancellor, spoke in the Reichstag on 10 Nov. 1912 of ((the determina tion of Germany to make its strength and capa bility prevail in the world? So long ago as 2.3 Sept 1898 the kaiser himself proclaimed at Stettin that Germany's future lay upon the water, while the year before (18 June) he had declared in a public speech at Cologne that °the trident (of Neptune) must be in our fist? Reduced to simple terms, Germaby aspired to become a °Weltmachto or world power with extensive oversee possessions such as the British Empire is composed of. To promote this object the Bismarckian doctrine of °blood and iron* was sedulously instilled into the minds of the e..ple by the ruling military caste. The German Navy League (Flottenverein) carried on a nation-wide propaganda by lectures and cine matograph shows, while the members of the Pan-German League (Alldentscher Verband) supplemented the campaiem with pamphlets beanng such titles as