PROBABILISM (from Lat. probabilis, prob able. from probare, to test, examine. front probes, good. Skt. prabhu. preFminent. from pra. before bha, to be). In Roman Catholic theology, the doctrine regarding the use of so-called 'probable opinions' in guiding the conscience as to the law fulness or unlawfulness of any particular action. The word came prominently into discussion in the seventeenth century and seems now fully accepted as a technical name. As the ground of the doc trine, it is assumed that, in human actions, abso lute certainty is not always attainable as to their lawfulness or unlawfulness. Short of this cer tainty, the intellect passes through the stages of 'doubt' and of 'probability.' In the former, it is swayed between conflicting views, so as to be un able to decide, or even to approach toward de ciding, what is true. In the latter, although there is a conflict of views, yet the reasons in their favor are not so equal that the intellect can not see preponderating motives in favor of the truth of one or of the other. Moreover, in the con flict of views, another element will a rise, as to their comparative 'safety.' that is. the greater or less danger of moral culpability which they involve; and this greater or less moral 'safety' of a view may or may not coincide with its greater or less 'probability.' The doctrine of probabilism arose in the Mid dle Ages from the wide play giten in penitential books to the idea of the morally indifferent, and was further promoted by the discussions of the scholastics upon conflict of authorities, and thus upon apparent or real conflict of duties, in the moral sphere. Vasquez introduced (1598) probe bilism into the moral theology of the Jesuits, and it soon gained a large place, being developed with great subtlety. In its extremest developments probabilism held that it is lawful to act upon any opinion which has in its favor the authority of any grave and approved doctor, though it may be less probable than its opposite. Escobar taught
that a confessor must absolve if a penitent ap peals to a probable opinion, even if lie himself holds another. In the sequel there was a very great relaxation of the 'whole moral tone, and serious scandals arose, leading to the eondemna lion of probabilism by the Sorbonne (1620). Against this theory, called probabilism simple, Pascal (q.v.) directed some of his famous Prorin vial Letters (1656). Discussion upon the subject was long continued, and in 1691 Gonzalez, the general of the Jesuits, issued his Elements of Moral Theology, which took the anti-probabilistie side, requiring that an opinion shall be certain before it is acted upon. Later sprang up three schools of probabilism: ) that of bilisni, according to which, of two opinions one can he ehosen only if it is at least equally proba ble with the other; (2) probabiliorism, according to which there are no eases of exactly equal proba bility, and the more probable is always to be fol lowed; (3) tutiorism, according to which the safer opinion is to be followed, even if less proba ble.
The great modern master on the subject is Saint Alfonso Liguori, whose system may he de scribed as a kind of practical probabiliorism, in which, by the use of what are called reflex princi ples, an opinion which object/rely is hut probable is made subjeetirely the basis of a certain and safe practical judgment. There can be no doubt that the system of probabilism has been pushed by some individual divines to scandalous ex tremes; hut it is only just to add that these ex tremes have been condemned by authority in the Roman Church; and that, on the other hand, the principles of the higher Roman schools of probe bilism are substantially the same as those of all moralists, whether of the old or of the new schools of ethics.
Consult: Dollinger-Renseh, Geschichte der Ho rals4reiligkcilen in der ram-ischcn Kirehe seit deny 16. Jahrhundert (Nordlingen, 1889) ; Luth ardt, Gesehiehte der christliehen Ellyik (Leipzig, 1892).