Serbia

Danev rejected Russia's fresh proposals for a compromise and reiterated the demand for the joint occupation of Macedonia. With Sazonov's sharp reply bidding Bulgaria to expect nothing more from Russia, St. Petersburg's influence over Sofia ended. On the night of June 29, without previous declaration of war, the Bulgarian armies made an almost simultaneous attack upon the Serbs and Greeks in the hope of seizing and holding the coveted districts of Macedonia until the foreign intervention which King Ferdinand believed to be imminent settled the dispute on a basis of beati possidentes. This is borne out, not merely by captured dispatches, but by the fact that when Putnik's forces everywhere held their own, Savoy on July I telegraphed the order to stop hostilities. But that very afternoon the Serbian counter-offensive opened, and after a desperate struggle of nine days on the Bre galnica front (July 1-9), the Bulgarians were obliged to abandon the whole Ov6epolje, the strategic key to central Macedonia. The Treaty of Bucharest.—By July 17 the Serbs had forced back the Bulgarians at all points to the frontier of and could henceforth adopt a mainly defensive attitude, while Greeks, Ru manians and Turks continued to advance. The appeals of Sofia to the Powers to enforce upon Turkey respect for a treaty con cluded under their auspices were disregarded; and Western public opinion was not inclined to save Bulgaria from the consequences of her own act. Meanwhile Austria-Hungary was held back from intervention by both her allies—Italy, who viewed with alarm the Balkan activities of any outside Power and was determined to insist upon compensation, and Germany, who feared the loss of Rumania for the Triple Alliance and the consequent derangement of the military balance in Europe. Italy indeed made it clear to Vienna that she would not recognize the casus f oederis of the Triple Alliance as applicable to such a case; and the combined pressure of Rome and Berlin, coupled with the certainty of Rus sian aid to Serbia, again averted war at the last moment. Bulgaria was forced to sign an armistice on July 31 and to open peace negotiations at Bucharest with her four Christian neighbours.

By the Treaty of Bucharest (Aug. 1o) Serbia acquired all Mace donia west of the Vardar, and to the east the districts of tip (Istib) and KoCana : Bulgaria retained possession of a dangerous salient at Strumnica, which enabled her to threaten Serbia's only railway connection with the Aegean. The Treaty of Constan tinople, which was concluded between Bulgaria and Turkey (Sept. 29) and deprived the former of the greater part of Thrace, did not directly concern Serbia; but the indifference shown by her and her new allies, and still more by Britain and Russia, to Turkey's violation of a treaty which was their joint work, and indeed was morally binding upon them, was to be dearly paid for by Bul garia's attitude in the World War. The treaties marked a new orientation in the Near East. Slav co-operation was replaced by mutual hatred, which threw defeated Bulgaria into the arms of Turkey and predisposed both for alliance with Berlin ; Rumania's ties with the Triple Alliance were sensibly loosened, while Greece was drawn in two directions by dynastic attractions and party rancours.

The Albanian Conflicts.

Austria-Hungary now concentrated her attention upon Albania, and thereby rendered still more acute the relations between Serbs and Albanians. The summons ad dressed to Belgrade by the Great Powers for the withdrawal of the Serbian troops (Aug. 19) was a signal for further trouble.

Late in Sept. there was a formidable Albanian rising, and the insurgents seized Dibra and even Okhrida, and forced Serbia to remobilize. In October the Serbs, in response to a peremptory

demand from Austria-Hungary, withdrew their troops, but sent an effective Note to the Great Powers, begging them to enjoin upon their Albanian protégés a respect for the frontiers created for their benefit.

By Christmas 1913 the situation in the new territory was rapidly becoming normal, but its administration left much to be desired, and the closing of Bulgarian schools, the expulsion of Exarchist clergy and occasional excesses against the Moslem population caused serious unrest and discontent. The PaMe ad ministration became absorbed in defending itself against the in creasingly violent onslaughts of the Opposition, which on March 4, 1914, withdrew from the Chamber as a protest against alleged unconstitutional action of the Government in budget matters. But though the tension was increased by the activities of a power ful military society known colloquially as "The Black Hand," and by the seizure of its club premises by the Minister of the Interior, Protie, the Government was still in office in the summer. The visit of Crown Prince Alexander and PagiC to St. Petersburg early in February had given rise to rumours of a new Balkan League under Russian auspices; but the return of Radoslavov to power in Sofia had really made any such plan impracticable.

Murder of the Archduke.

On June 24 King Peter, incapaci tated by ill-health, appointed Prince Alexander as regent, and simultaneously dissolved parliament, Pagie having in April pledged himself to the elections for a "Great Skupgtina" for constitutional changes. Only f our days later the assassination of the Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his wife at Sarajevo revived the latent Austro-Serbian conflict in an acuter form than ever. The authors of the crime, Princip and Cabrinovie, belonged to a group of Bosnian Serb students, mostly under the age of 20, who gave ter rorist expression to the universal discontent aroused by Austro Hungarian repression throughout her Yugoslav provinces. The victories of Serbia during the Balkan Wars and the openly hostile policy pursued towards her by Vienna and Budapest had assured to her in the eyes of public opinion the position of a Yugoslav Piedmont. Though the initiative unquestionably rested with the Bosnians themselves, it was proved that the assassins had been in Belgrade and had been secretly smuggled across the Drina into Bosnia, after receiving hand grenades and revolvers from the Serbian Komitadjis Major TankosiC and CiganoviL On these facts the Ballplatz sought to establish the complicity, or at least the foreknowledge, of the Serbian Government, yet despite the compromising admissions of Ljuba JovanoviC, the theory is im probable. The country itself was exhausted by two wars; the Al banian campaign in the previous autumn had shown the reluctance of the peasant soldiers to return to the colours, and it was now the eve of harvest. Military stocks were alarmingly low; the young Prince had only just assumed the reins of government : the posi tion of the Cabinet was shaky, and a fierce electoral campaign was opening. Delicate negotiations with Montenegro for a cus toms and military union, and perhaps even a dynastic arrange ment, were still pending. Serbia had every conceivable motive for avoiding aggressive action. After the tragedy, it is difficult to see what other course her Government could have pursued ; its one grave omission was failure to offer a thorough inquiry, without waiting for any suggestion from Vienna.