The chief subject to be considered in an attempt to look into the future of world com merce, as affected by the war, is the con dition present and prospective of the area in which the war was waged. Practically all of Europe, except that part immediately fronting upon the Atlantic, has been radically changed in political organization, the grouping of peoples and the facilities of production, transportation, finance and, therefore, of commerce. Four great countries with an area of 10,000,000 square miles and a population of 325,000,000 have been trans formed into 40 new and comparatively small political divisions, and if we include their °overseas)) areas the number of new political units is 50, with an aggregate area of 11,000, 000 square miles and 350,000,000 popula tion. In Russian territory alone no less than 20 groups of people have declared themselves as new political organizations, republics in most cases, despite their inexperience in the conduct of that form of government. From Austro Hungarian territory a half dozen new political divisions have sprung into existence. Ger many, after losing 15 per cent of her European area, 10 per cent of her population, all of her colonies and an important part of her industrial resources, re-enters the industrial and economic world with a new form of government, a much depreciated currency and greatly diminished transportation facilities, especially on the ocean. From the territory in Asia formerly adminis tered by the Turkish government, a dozen politi cal divisions are being created, many of them to be governed at long distance as °mandates° or colonies, protectorates and dependencies, while in others the administration will be left to the chieftains of the scattered and nomadic popu lations. The German colonial possessions in Africa, Asia and Oceania are also to pass under new political control and commercial influences.
Thus all of interior Europe with its great manufacturing and agricultural resources has been thrown into the melting pot, and the new political units made therefrom have been grouped chiefly upon ethnic relationship and with forms of government new to the people and to be conducted by comparatively inex penenced minds, leaving to the future the re adjustment of their industrial, commercial, financial and transportation facilities. This great area of interior Europe with its 325,000, No people was, prior to the war, an extremely important factor in world industries and com merce. Its annual production of wheat aver aged 1,250,000,000 bushels or nearly one-third of the entire world crop; it produced practically all of the beet sugar of the world and thus fur nished about one-half of the world's sugar sup ply; .its coal and iron production exceeded the requirements of the local population, and its factories distributed their chemicals, textiles and iron and steel manufactures to the entire world and took in exchange food and manufacturing material of other countries. The pre-war ex ports of the four countries which have now been subdivided into 40 new ditical divisions totaled in 1913 nearly $4,000,111,000 and their combined imports exceeded $4,000,000,000, mak ing a grand aggregate of $8,000,000,000 or one fifth of the entire international commerce of the world; while their railways were 115,000 miles in length or one-sixth those of the entire world.
It is quite apparent that the effect of the war upon prospective world industries and com merce depends to a large extent upon the indus trial, financial and commercial future of the 40 political units into which these four great areas — Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary and Tur key — have been subdivided.
While it may be assumed that the 325,000,000 industrious people of this area who have created in the past an international trade of $8,000,000, 000 are still of the same industrious disposition, it is important to consider the new grouping which has been made, in the matter of ethnic stocics, form of government, experience or oth erwise as lawmakers, transportation facilities, finances, industrial power and, therefore, com mercial prospects. One of the most distin guished American authorities on world political and ethnic history, Prof. Edwin A. Grosvenor, formerly professor of modern government and international law in Amherst College, and for 20 years professor of history in the Robert College, at Constantinople, discussing the new groupings of people in the area in question, says: °For the first time in human experience, an effort is being made by the victors after a great war to trace the new frontiers in accordance with the racial aspirations and affinities of the peoples in volved. Because of the impossibility of defining exactly the liraits of a race, many heart burnings are inevitable in the new adjustment of pean boundaries. . . . The Old Order has passed away. A new Europe is in the making. Neither a year nor a generation will suffice to make it. . . . Europe, though so old, is for
the greater part young and inexperienced in self-government and political duty and oppor tunity. The gait of more titan one newly en franchised people will resemble the uncertain walk of a just-awakened child.° Before entering upon a consideration of the 40 new political divisions created from the four great interior countries, it is not improper to give a moment to the effect of the war upon the population, area and industrial and commer cial power of the Allied group.
Creat Britain.— Great Britain made no at tempt to gain European territory as a result of her participation in the war,. but in the distribu tion of the overseas possessions of the defeated countries, she has added materially to the area of her °colonies, protectorates and dependencies.° Immediately following the announcement that Turkey had aligned herself with the Central Powers, Great Britain on 8 Dec. 1914 declared a British protectorate over t, in the gov ernment of which she hadEfol; a long time largely participated, and this new British gov ernment over Egypt was promptly recognized by the French, Russian and Belgian governments, and in at least a limited form by the United States. At the same moment attention was Fven by Great Britain and France to the erman territories in Africa, which aggreg-ated about 930,000 square miles with a population of approximately 11,000,000. Togo, lying on the west coast between the British colony of Gold Coast and the French colony of Dahomey, was jointly taken by the British and French troops in August 1914 and the administration divided between the govertmients of the British and French colonies adjacent and is now governed by a commission appointed by the Allied com manders. German Southwest Africa was promptly invaded by troops from die adjoining colony of British South Africa and was con quered in July 1915 and placed under the con trol of the government of the South African Union, a British colony. Kamerun, also on the west coast, between British Nigeria and French Kongo, was conquered by British and French troops in co-operation, and in February 1916 a part of its area was placed under the govern ment of British Nigeria and the remainder under that of French Equatorial Africa. Ger man East Africa, the most important of the German possessions in that continent, was in vaded by Great Britain in the early part of the war and its conquest cornpleted in 1918, and the Peace Conference at Paris decided that the °mandate') for its government should be held by Great Britain. The control of British East Africa and Egypt by Great Britain gives to that country a continuous stretch of British terri tory from the Mediterranean at the North to Cape Town at the South. In the Pacific, the German possessions of Kaiser Wilhelm Land, the Bismarcic Archipelago, the German Solomon Islands and Nauru were occupied by Australian troops and the German Samoan Islands by British forces, and all remain under British military occupation. In Asia Minor, Great Britain, by her occupation of Bagdad and the Valley of the Euphrates in. the early part of 1917, obtained. control over the Mesopotamia Valley with an estimated area of 143,000 square miles and a population of z000,obo, and by het occupation of Jerusalem in the latter 'part crf 1917 she obtained control 'of Palestine with an area of about 16,000 square miles and a popula tion of approximately 900,000. ' " ' Franct gained important addi 4ions to her territory and producing power by the return to her of the Alsace-Lorraine area and with it a permanent control of the German coal mines of:the adjacent territory of the Saar Valley. Alsace-Lorraine has an area of 5,600 square miles and a imputation, by the 1910 cen sus, of 1,8'74,000. The chief cities arc Strass burg, the capital,. with a population of 179,000; Mulhausen, in Alsace, 95,000, and Metz, in Lorraine, 69,000. The chief agricultural prod ucts are wheat, rye, oats'arnt wine; the mineral products in 1913 were 21,000,000 tons of iron ore and 3,800,000. tons of coal. .The cotton manufactures were considered the most im portant in Germany and the woolen manufac tures also of considerable importance. Ger many, by the Peace Treaty, cedes to France the fnll ownership of the coal mines of the Saar Basin, whith extends from the frontier of Lorraine as far north as Saint Wendel, includ ing on the west the Valley of the Saar as far as Saarholzbach'and on the east the town of Idomberg. This coal area is to be governed by a commission appointed by the L.eague of Na tions and gt the end of 15 years a plebiscite iS to be taken td determine the wishes of the people as to union with Prance or Germany or continued control by the League of Nations. France also gains in Africa about 100,000 square miks of area and about 1,500,000 people.